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Variation 1 – 21$-52S-52P-F-31P-32U-C – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 8:00 a.m.

In Response To: Variation 1 rollout (KenB)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game pip: 153 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBaBC-A--AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.017% (G:25.578% B:0.963%)	62.329% (G:26.184% B:1.016%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.983% (G:9.141% B:0.493%)	37.671% (G:9.321% B:0.534%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.4094	+0.8401
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.5779	±0.0056 (+0.5723..+0.5836)
Double/Take:	+0.5444 (-0.0336)	±0.0083 (+0.5361..+0.5527)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.4221)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.9%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36859393 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2016-Apr-28 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 21$-52S-52P-F-31P-32U-C-n-tm.xgp n[N 578-34] "<=7 n[N 570-26] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

21$-52S-52P-F-31P-32U-C — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.04 2-ply Trunc	771935687	+569.094	n[N 569–32] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	36859393	+577.9	n[N 578–34] "<=7	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+570.3	n[N 570–26] "&e	Taper_Mike

21$-52S-52P-F-31P-32U-C — According to Score

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	1	+971.0	–9–3 [D 971–198] "<=5	Ken Bame

For money, this is a small no-double.

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
  neilkaz -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:23 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:57 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:57 a.m.
    • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
      neilkaz -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 3:03 a.m.
      • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
        Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 4:46 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 7:30 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Wolfgang -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 1:38 p.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    johnk -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 3:18 p.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    TraumaBG -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 7:01 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 12:06 p.m.
    • Variation 1 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:10 p.m.
      • Variation 1 – 21$-52S-52P-F-31P-32U-C – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 8:00 a.m.
    • Variation 2 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:13 p.m.
      • Variation 2 rollout
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 3:13 p.m.
        • Variation 2 -- 54S-33P-64R-31X-41U-C
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 April 2016, at 7:06 a.m.
    • Variation 3 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:17 p.m.
    • Variation 4 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:23 p.m.
    • Variation 5 rollout - cusp
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:27 p.m.
      • Variation 5 - cusp -- 64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 April 2016, at 5:37 a.m.
        • 64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
          Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 8:42 a.m.
    • OTB and RO
      Stick -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:46 p.m.
      • OTB and RO
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:59 p.m.
        • Other ways to face the 52S-33P-32 decision
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 April 2016, at 4:54 a.m.