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64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 8:42 a.m.

In Response To: Variation 5 - cusp -- 64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBaBC-A--AdD---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.814% (G:25.904% B:0.995%)	63.083% (G:26.336% B:1.039%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.186% (G:9.026% B:0.463%)	36.917% (G:9.201% B:0.498%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.4304	+0.8769
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.5995	±0.0028 (+0.5967..+0.6022)
Double/Take:	+0.5858 (-0.0137)	±0.0040 (+0.5818..+0.5899)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.4005)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.2%
Rollout details
31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36859393 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 38 minutes

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2016-May-01 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C-n-tm.xgp n[N 599-14] "<=31 n[N 596-11] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.04 2-ply Trunc	772985823	+593.218	n[N 593–10] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	36859393	+599.5	n[N 599–14] "<=31	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+596.4	n[N 596–11] "&e	Taper_Mike

64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C — According to Score

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	1	+1000.0	–9–6 [D 1003–207] "<=5	Ken Bame

For money, this is a very close no-double.

LOL, my sequence for this had 9 rolls!

65R-54S-21H-41H-32H-F-53P-32U-C

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
  neilkaz -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:23 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:57 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:57 a.m.
    • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
      neilkaz -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 3:03 a.m.
      • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
        Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 4:46 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 7:30 a.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    Wolfgang -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 1:38 p.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    johnk -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 3:18 p.m.
  • 52S 33A 32 AtS play and cube action
    TraumaBG -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 7:01 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 12:06 p.m.
    • Variation 1 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:10 p.m.
      • Variation 1 – 21$-52S-52P-F-31P-32U-C – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 8:00 a.m.
    • Variation 2 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:13 p.m.
      • Variation 2 rollout
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 3:13 p.m.
        • Variation 2 -- 54S-33P-64R-31X-41U-C
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 April 2016, at 7:06 a.m.
    • Variation 3 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:17 p.m.
    • Variation 4 rollout
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:23 p.m.
    • Variation 5 rollout - cusp
      KenB -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:27 p.m.
      • Variation 5 - cusp -- 64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 April 2016, at 5:37 a.m.
        • 64R-21X-53Z-33A-32U-C – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
          Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 8:42 a.m.
    • OTB and RO
      Stick -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:46 p.m.
      • OTB and RO
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 2:59 p.m.
        • Other ways to face the 52S-33P-32 decision
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 30 April 2016, at 4:54 a.m.