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xg has no clue

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 6 June 2016, at 5:36 a.m.

In Response To: xg has no clue (Phil Simborg)

I do believe this to be a take. Here's why.

  • The only player with real checker decisions it the player doubling. Sure, from time to time the guy with 3 checkers may get a non obvious choice but for the most part it's forced/obvious moves for him.

This, which I think we can all agree XG does not misplay by and large:





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 72
9 point match
pip: 69
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBCCCB------------------:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 63.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.29% (G:0.07% B:0.01%) 36.53% (G:0.09% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.273 +0.358
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.504±0.017 (+0.487..+0.520)
Double/Take:+0.358 (-0.146)±0.021 (+0.337..+0.379)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.496)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49031384
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 29.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

And this:





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 51
9 point match
pip: 57
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBBBCCC-----------------a-:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 24.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.512 +0.918
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.911 (-0.007)±0.011 (+0.900..+0.922)
Double/Take:+0.918±0.011 (+0.907..+0.929)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.082)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49031384
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:81.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

So basically to have a pass now we have to avoid what I would call two somewhat commonly occurring situations and always close out 3 checkers. There are the rare times when the person is able to maintain a high anchor or even escape 2 or all 3(!) of the checkers by luckboxing.

I'm not willing to put any more time into this than I have already but those who offered up this position as a prop/dead drop I'd suggest reconsidering.

Stick

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