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So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?

Posted By: David Rennie
Date: Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 2:26 a.m.

This is the question I just heard someone ask Nate Silver on the 538 podcast in which he had Trump at a 40% chance to win the presidency. A professional journalist asked this.

Sigh.

Is this how Bob Koca feels when he hears one of my math questions?

Messages In This Thread

• So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
  David Rennie -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 2:26 a.m.
  • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
    Jake Jacobs -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 3:53 a.m.
    • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
      David Rennie -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 4:23 a.m.
      • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
        Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 9:52 a.m.
      • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
        Joe Russell -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 11:29 a.m.
        • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
          David Rennie -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 3:06 p.m.
          • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
            Joe Russell -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 12:34 a.m.
            • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
              David Rennie -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 12:54 a.m.
  • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 9:17 a.m.
    • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 7:39 p.m.
      • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
        Jake Jacobs -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 1:24 a.m.
  • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
    Bill Finneran -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 1:50 p.m.
  • about
    garyo -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 3:42 p.m.
    • about
      TraumaBG -- Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 4:36 p.m.
  • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
    Keene -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 6:33 p.m.
    • So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?
      Art Grater -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 12:26 a.m.
      • +1
        Keene -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 2:27 a.m.