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So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 7:39 p.m.

In Response To: So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever? (Casper Van der Tak)

I agree with Casper that in the case of the presidential election, it is not at all a dumb question what exactly it means for, say, Trump to have a 40% chance of winning.

The reporter lacks the training to be able to phrase the question in a way that sounds intelligent but I am willing to cut some slack there.

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