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When to claim a free point?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 21 January 2017, at 1:22 a.m.

In Response To: When to claim a free point? (Stein Kulseth)

Stein Kulseth wrote:

until he does claim both A and B will play as if A really had one point more.

This reasoning seems correct, provided that we understand that

1. if B is 1-away Crawford, then we pretend that A has one point more but it's still Crawford, and

2. otherwise, if A is 2-away, then we pretend that A is 1-away post-Crawford.

Bob's puzzle is a nice variation on a question that he has weighed in on before, namely whether it's better to be lucky early in a match or late in a match?

It is also related to a problem that I proposed for the Speed Department for MIT Technology Review's Puzzle Corner (I may have posted it to BGO before in some form):

Two teams, the Slow Starters and the Late Chokers, play each other annually in a best-of-seven series. The Slow Starters always lose game 1, and if the series reaches 3–3, the Late Chokers always lose game 7. Otherwise, the teams are equally likely to win a given game. Which team is more likely to win the series?

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