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Basic early game goof safe vs bold play ***RollOut*** and Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 10 July 2017, at 2:10 p.m.

In Response To: Basic early game goof safe vs bold play ***RollOut*** (leobueno)

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 171 7 point match pip: 160 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaa-E-C--BcC--bc-d-A--A-:0:0:1:52:2:3:0:7:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	8/3* 6/4*	eq: -0.041
	Player: Opponent: 49.95% (G:15.31% B:1.00%) 50.05% (G:14.96% B:1.72%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.052...-0.030) - [100.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 6/4*	eq: -0.097 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 48.89% (G:13.53% B:0.74%) 51.11% (G:13.85% B:1.48%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.108...-0.087) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 38 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.176 (-0.135)
	Player: Opponent: 48.01% (G:12.53% B:0.55%) 51.99% (G:15.08% B:1.05%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.194...-0.158) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 04 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/11 8/3*	eq: -0.188 (-0.147)
	Player: Opponent: 47.32% (G:13.24% B:0.76%) 52.68% (G:15.33% B:1.89%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.208...-0.167) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is my rollout of leobueno's original position. (324 trials are not nearly enough to obtain a reliable ball-park margin, and even 1k is light. 13/8 6/4* is not a whopper!)

When facing a one-point board and having at least one checker back, and lacking a great alternative (such as making a good point), double-blotting on the 5pt and 4pt (high up) typically has a healthy risk/reward ratio.

This is less true with double-blotting on the 4pt and 3pt (as here) and when you're ahead in the race -- 11 pips in this case. The problem is that (a) Blue is under the gun and unable to hurdle the threat with 52, and (b) the starting five-three distribution of 6pt+8pt is too front-loaded to make a single hit efficient.

Below are a couple of variants that I hope will help.
A supplemental alert in Variant 1 is just how inferior it is to anchor on the 22pt.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 171 7 point match pip: 161 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaa-E-C--BcC--bc-d--A-A-:0:0:1:52:2:3:0:7:10
Variant 1 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 21/22)

1.	Rollout1	22/15	eq: -0.049
	Player: Opponent: 50.75% (G:12.61% B:0.65%) 49.25% (G:13.65% B:1.10%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.058...-0.040) - [97.5%] Duration: 38 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3* 6/4*	eq: -0.063 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 49.53% (G:15.11% B:0.93%) 50.47% (G:15.33% B:1.90%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.074...-0.052) - [2.5%] Duration: 41 minutes 37 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/20 8/3*	eq: -0.125 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 48.53% (G:13.18% B:0.76%) 51.47% (G:13.34% B:1.38%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.145...-0.105) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 23 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/20 13/8	eq: -0.128 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 48.59% (G:13.09% B:0.65%) 51.41% (G:13.98% B:1.01%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.147...-0.109) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 27 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/8 6/4*	eq: -0.134 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 48.14% (G:13.07% B:1.00%) 51.86% (G:14.33% B:1.49%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.153...-0.116) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 42 seconds
6.	Rollout2	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.232 (-0.183)
	Player: Opponent: 46.03% (G:12.31% B:0.56%) 53.97% (G:13.66% B:1.20%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.249...-0.214) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 44 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 171 7 point match pip: 167 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaa-D-C--BcD--bc-d-A--A-:0:0:1:52:2:3:0:7:10
Variant 2 (Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 6/13)

1.	Rollout1	13/8 6/4*	eq: -0.107
	Player: Opponent: 49.00% (G:12.58% B:0.67%) 51.00% (G:14.09% B:1.48%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.116...-0.098) - [50.8%] Duration: 44 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3* 6/4*	eq: -0.107 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 49.17% (G:13.58% B:0.82%) 50.83% (G:15.59% B:1.74%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.117...-0.097) - [49.2%] Duration: 45 minutes 35 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.136 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 49.00% (G:11.70% B:0.62%) 51.00% (G:13.83% B:1.18%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.145...-0.127) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 27 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/11 8/3*	eq: -0.150 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 48.08% (G:12.71% B:0.68%) 51.92% (G:14.67% B:1.54%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.160...-0.140) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
5.	Rollout2	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.158 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 48.61% (G:11.50% B:0.57%) 51.39% (G:14.75% B:1.14%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.167...-0.149) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 13 seconds
1 7000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51521755 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Basic early game goof safe vs bold play
  leobueno -- Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 8:51 p.m.
  • Basic early game goof safe vs bold play
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 8 July 2017, at 10:32 p.m.
  • Basic early game goof safe vs bold play
    scotty -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 11:12 a.m.
  • Basic early game goof safe vs bold play
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 1:16 p.m.
    • Basic early game goof safe vs bold play
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 4:33 p.m.
    • struggling to understand the rollout results
      scotty -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 1:36 a.m.
      • struggling to understand the rollout results
        Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 8:23 a.m.
        • struggling to understand the rollout results
          scotty -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 4:16 p.m.
  • Basic early game goof safe vs bold play ***RollOut***
    leobueno -- Sunday, 9 July 2017, at 10:14 p.m.
    • Basic early game goof safe vs bold play ***RollOut*** and Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 10 July 2017, at 2:10 p.m.