I'm trying to get a better feel for thinking about 'DMP' plays and adjusting appropriately at match scores. Here's a play I got solidly wrong in a recent match where I was leading 2a/3a, opting to hit with 23/20 13/9* rather than securing the advanced anchor. XG has the plays essentially tied at DMP . . . so I can see how hitting is solidly right for money since I get a lot of value from gammons. But I would have thought that at my 2-away score, gammons would also be valuable, winning the match with an undoubled gammon. The only thing I can think of is that my opponent might have an opportunity to double me at some point, robbing me of the gammon vig. But does that account for anchoring being best? Hitting isn't exactly a blunder, but I'm hoping this might be illustrative of some useful concept.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 151 | | 3 point match | pip: 149
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B-BC-Ba--cDb--c-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:43:2:2:0:3:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 13/9* | eq: +0.162 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.08% (G:25.46% B:1.79%)
41.92% (G:11.20% B:0.68%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 23/20 13/9* | eq: +0.161 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.07% (G:24.59% B:1.68%)
41.93% (G:10.45% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 23/20 | eq: +0.159 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.97% (G:16.50% B:0.33%)
42.03% (G:4.97% B:0.18%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* 9/6 | eq: +0.152 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.59% (G:25.26% B:1.22%)
42.41% (G:10.22% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* 8/5 | eq: +0.124 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.21% (G:24.79% B:1.43%)
43.79% (G:11.26% B:0.62%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | | 3 point match | pip: 149
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B-BC-Ba--cDb--c-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:43:1:0:0:3:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 23/20 | eq: +0.298 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.97% (G:16.29% B:0.27%)
42.03% (G:4.78% B:0.17%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 13/9* | eq: +0.258 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.20% (G:25.57% B:1.58%)
41.80% (G:11.16% B:0.65%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* 9/6 | eq: +0.257 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.82% (G:24.92% B:1.11%)
42.18% (G:10.52% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 23/20 13/9* | eq: +0.248 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.05% (G:24.44% B:1.60%)
41.95% (G:10.73% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* 8/5 | eq: +0.166 (-0.133) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.31% (G:24.55% B:1.32%)
43.69% (G:11.61% B:0.63%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 149
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B-BC-Ba--cDb--c-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 13/9* | eq: +0.457 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.22% (G:25.20% B:1.50%)
41.78% (G:11.26% B:0.66%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 23/20 13/9* | eq: +0.442 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.15% (G:24.10% B:1.50%)
41.85% (G:10.57% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* 9/6 | eq: +0.431 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.61% (G:25.44% B:1.12%)
42.39% (G:10.53% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 23/20 | eq: +0.396 (-0.062) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.01% (G:16.06% B:0.28%)
41.99% (G:4.92% B:0.18%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/9* 8/5 | eq: +0.378 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.20% (G:24.84% B:1.33%)
43.80% (G:11.91% B:0.68%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10