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Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout and VARIANT

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 28 October 2017, at 5:38 p.m.

In Response To: Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout and VARIANT (scotty)

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 130 7 point match Crawford pip: 140 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBCBB---bB---bbc-b-bB-:0:0:1:52:0:6:1:7:10
Variant (White has her 4pt instead of 5pt)

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/8	eq: +0.028
	Player: Opponent: 50.18% (G:13.44% B:0.80%) 49.82% (G:22.42% B:2.64%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.026...+0.030) - [58.2%] Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22 6/1	eq: +0.028 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 50.22% (G:14.71% B:0.61%) 49.78% (G:21.08% B:2.55%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.025...+0.030) - [41.8%] Duration: 11 minutes 10 seconds
1 6480 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 94307656 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

As I look at the numbers that the variant rollout has provided for W, G, a0>19nd BGs, I am having difficulty understanding why both plays display identical equities. This game is Crawford, so we know the cube value is 1 for all wins, gammons and backgammons. We also know that whites gammons and backgammons are irrelevant to the equity of the position. Play #2 has 0.04% more wins, 1.27% more gammons and 0.19% fewer backgammons. I cannot see how the value of 1.27 gammons is worth less in equity than 0.19 backgammons. My thinking is that play #2 should have a higher equity based on the numbers provided by the rollout. What am I missing here???

You seem to be under the misconception that backgammons are irrelevant. If Blue wins a backgammon (triple), he will then need only 4 points to win the match (two single games or one gammon) instead of 5.

Play #1 wins .04% less often (and gammons 1.27% less often, but as you point out that's not worth much -- just future bg and deprive-free-drop equities). Against that, Play #1 backgammons .19% more often.

Hope that helps.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Falafel Bets #2
  Stick -- Tuesday, 24 October 2017, at 7:37 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #2
    Sean Garber -- Tuesday, 24 October 2017, at 10:02 p.m.
    • Falafel Bets #2
      mamabear -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 12:12 a.m.
      • Falafel Bets #2
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 8:17 a.m.
      • Falafel Bets #2
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 6:46 p.m.
  • Falafel Bets #2
    Mick Z -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 12:02 a.m.
  • Falafel Bets #2
    Mike Clapsadle -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 1:18 a.m.
  • Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 25 October 2017, at 9:13 p.m.
    • Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout and VARIANT
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 27 October 2017, at 11:26 a.m.
      • Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout and VARIANT
        scotty -- Saturday, 28 October 2017, at 4:47 p.m.
        • Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout and VARIANT
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 28 October 2017, at 5:38 p.m.
          • Falafel Bets #2 - Rollout and VARIANT
            scotty -- Sunday, 29 October 2017, at 3:04 p.m.