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[Hyper 05] Luck and Skill

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Saturday, 14 July 2018, at 6:08 a.m.

In Response To: [Hyper 05] Luck and Skill (Tom Keith)

"... luck in backgammon is open for all to see. You can even measure it." Not necessarily true.

There is "hidden" luck in backgammon. Depending on the skill level of the player, there may be one to dozens of decisions in a match where the player is not sure what to do and has to make a guess. If the player is "lucky" with his guesses in that match (65%-70% correct, for example) his PR might be 4. If he is unlucky (30%-35% correct, for example) his PR might be 7.

When a player mentions that his play is inconsistent -- sometimes a 4 PR, sometimes a 7 PR -- he's often actually saying that he was "lucky" to make more correct guesses when his PR was 4, and unlucky to make more incorrect guesses when his PR was 7.

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