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[Hyper 05] Luck and Skill

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Saturday, 14 July 2018, at 11:56 p.m.

In Response To: [Hyper 05] Luck and Skill (Ray Kershaw)

My comments were meant to expand on Bob's comments, but only in regard to backgammon.

It's been frequently mentioned that a skilled player seems to be luckier than a less skilled player. The explanation being that the skilled player places his checkers so that more rolls work to his benefit. When playing against XG, it often surprises me when XG's 55 or 66 propels XG's checkers around the board to hit, cover, and/or close-out. (My reaction is "I didn't see that coming!") Obviously a "lucky" roll by XG, but it might not have been a lucky roll if XG had not skillfully placed spare checkers a move (or two or three moves) previously.

As to the component of luck in luck, an opponent can incorrectly leave himself vulnerable to my "lucky" roll when better options are available. My "luck" was not the result of skill as in the previous example, nor was it pure luck; my "luck" was the result of being lucky in having the opponent make a sub-optimal play.

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