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BGonline.org Forums
The box means NOTHING
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: The box means NOTHING (Timothy Chow)
Date: Saturday, 29 August 2009, at 4:34 a.m.
B is the sum of an infinite series comprised of terms of your expected equity gain in the Nth future game in a box run times your probability of making it to that future game. Clearly, those terms are very much dependent upon who will be playing as captain in each such game, and as a result the sum B also varies from game to game throughout a box run. The value of B will likely be lowest if the second strongest player in the chouette is next in the rotation after the current captain.
Anyway, it seems to me that practically speaking, the effect of B is to lower the money gammon price to some cube-level dependent value below 0.5, since you are more willing to sacrifice gammon wins to gain single wins. Similarly, it lowers your opponent's gammon price (from your perspective, not theirs) since you are more willing to risk gammon losses to gain wins.
Also, you will tend to be slower to cube the captain (more willing to lose your market) since doubling someone in sacrifices some wins in order to get the remaining wins at twice the stake. Of course you'll double the captain late regardless because they're usually taking anyway. They don't know the box means NOTHING.
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