This position was rolled out before I got around to responding to Stick's post: Prime time rollout
It seems to me that the problem with 24/23 is not that it steps up (which has positive value) but rather that slotting the sixth point of the prime has so much more positive value.
This led me to wondering if 13/9 8/7 is even better than 11/7 8/7, for the following reasons:
(1) Blue's 4s that hit on the 18pt leave more return shots on average than his 6s that hit on the 16pt.
(2) In order to deflect, Blue will hit loose on the 1pt while breaking his 7pt with 62 and 61 (if 6s are blocked) instead of the better alternatives of making a six-prime with 42 or hitting loose without breaking the 7pt with 41 (if 4s are blocked).
(3) If White is hit or pointed on, he will have more numbers that cover his prime: his entering 2s will be diversified.
Based on my short Snowie rollouts, 13/9 8/7 is indeed better -- by a lot. If you don't mind, Stick, please add 13/9 8/7 to your rollout, and also I'd appreciate seeing more than 108 trials (for this and for every rollout posted at bgonline, no matter how lopsided the candidates) -- I'm not solely interested in knowing the best play; I'm more interested in seeing semi-reliable margins so that my intuition is not lead astray by statistical noise.
Thanks,
Nack
| White trails 5-8 to 11, with 41 to play | 133 |
|---|---|
| |
| 99 | |
Position ID: 7PaGAAjY5qoCIA Match ID: AQFmAVAAQAAA | |
