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Prime Time revisited at score with cube
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Prime Time revisited at score with cube (Nack Ballard)
Date: Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 4:25 a.m.
Nack, I'm perplexed by two of your statements -- (1) that the "live cube" equity ought to be ignored (with regard to score-based analysis) and (2) that you included the "live cube" equity just to see what might be best for money play.
(1) My understanding is that the "live cube" equity is in fact an equity that reflects cube actions taken in the cubeful rollout. If the rollout had been cubeless, then Snowie would have manufactured a Janowski-enhanced "cubeful" equity. But it has not done that to get the "live cube" equity.
With all due caution to Snowie's not playing the checkers ATC (and cube too? if that's so, that's truly bizarre), somewhat opposing the idea of ignoring the live cube equity, I've long found it an irritant that Snowie's presentation of rollout results bury the "live cube" equity in the details, since that's the equity in which I am usually most interested.
(2) The "live cube" equity is not a money game equity; it's an EMG equity. Perhaps I am mistaken, or, perhaps you were confusing "live cube" with "money cubeless"? And note, too tht, since it's an EMG equity using Snowie's own MET, that adds an complication when comparing results to Ken's XG and Stick's Gnubg rollouts which used, I assume, the G11 MET.
Using the live cube equities from the three rollouts, there is disagreement among them (Snowie has the plays as pick'em, XG prefers 11/7 8/7 by 0.028, and Gnubg prefers that play by 0.058), but perhaps some of this might disappear if the Snowie and Gnubg rollouts were extended.
Play Snowie (Snowie MET) XG (G11 MET) Gnubg (G11 MET) 11/7 8/7 0.156 ±0.015 +0.193 ± 0.005 +0.191 ± 0.028 13/9 8/7 0.158 ±0.016 +0.165 ± 0.005 +0.133 ± 0.029
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