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61P-31P+C=4a-1a? Results & ROs
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: 61P-31P+C=4a-1a? (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Friday, 25 December 2009, at 5:10 p.m.
I thought this was interesting when I saw it come up. I opined that it was very close and might be a pass at 2-away and a take at 4-away.
As Neil suggested this one depends on the MET used. g11 has the free drop at PCr -2 as worth 1.189%. The new supremo MET assigns more value to the free drop: it has PCr -2 as worth 1.2323%. That doesn't look like much but those 4 hundredths of 1 percent are enough to swing the decision.
On g11 this rolled out to somewhere around a 1.01 pass at PCr -2 and around a .998 coin flip take/drop at PCr -4.
In any case, I should just take this opportunity to point out that I was right, I just needed a stronger MET to prove it.
However, I also have to point out that although the supremo MET is utilizing the strongest RO settings to date, there is a significant uncertainty regarding how much the free drop is worth. If I haven't made a mistake in my calculations, GNU's reported standard deviation of PCr -2 is about .085%--i.e., the .04% that it would take to swing this is only about half of one standard deviation. So, buyer beware.
I may extend the rollout of this particular score and see if it differs substantially from what David has. The hope is that a much longer rollout is almost exactly the same as the current one. The problem is when the much longer rollout is slightly different from the current one. The problem I had with extending David's rollouts previously was that they are all built upon themselves...in this case, the whole Post-Crawford MET depends on PCr -2 so if I extend PCr -2 the rest of the MET may change, but doing every RO to such length is unfeasible.
In any case this one is pretty close.
4-away:
is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 1637 point match pip: 160
score: 3
is Player 1XGID=-b----EBB---eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:3:6:0:7:8 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 50.27% (G: 14.19% B: 1.62%) Opponent Winning Chances: 49.73% (G: 16.88% B: 1.80%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 50.65% (G: 14.21% B: 2.53%) Opponent Winning Chances: 49.35% (G: 17.50% B: 2.48%) Cubeless Equities No Double: +0.151 Double: +0.980 Cubeful Equities No Double: +0.899 (-0.078) Double/Take: +0.978 Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.022) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 plyConfidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.892...+0.907) Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.968...+0.987) Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 7 hours 49 minutes 57 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: New GNU
2-away:
is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 1637 point match pip: 160
score: 5
is Player 1XGID=-b----EBB---eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:5:6:0:7:8 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 50.08% (G: 15.23% B: 1.37%) Opponent Winning Chances: 49.92% (G: 15.91% B: 1.56%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 50.21% (G: 17.50% B: 2.52%) Opponent Winning Chances: 49.79% (G: 16.77% B: 2.13%) Cubeless Equities No Double: +0.306 Double: +1.008 Cubeful Equities No Double: +0.919 (-0.081) Double/Take: +1.008 (+0.008) Double/Drop: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Drop Rollout details 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 plyConfidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.914...+0.923) Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+1.002...+1.015) Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 99.3% Duration: 16 hours 05 minutes 24 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: New GNU
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