I thought this was interesting when I saw it come up. I opined that it was very close and might be a pass at 2-away and a take at 4-away.
As Neil suggested this one depends on the MET used. g11 has the free drop at PCr -2 as worth 1.189%. The new supremo MET assigns more value to the free drop: it has PCr -2 as worth 1.2323%. That doesn't look like much but those 4 hundredths of 1 percent are enough to swing the decision.
On g11 this rolled out to somewhere around a 1.01 pass at PCr -2 and around a .998 coin flip take/drop at PCr -4.
In any case, I should just take this opportunity to point out that I was right, I just needed a stronger MET to prove it.
However, I also have to point out that although the supremo MET is utilizing the strongest RO settings to date, there is a significant uncertainty regarding how much the free drop is worth. If I haven't made a mistake in my calculations, GNU's reported standard deviation of PCr -2 is about .085%--i.e., the .04% that it would take to swing this is only about half of one standard deviation. So, buyer beware.
I may extend the rollout of this particular score and see if it differs substantially from what David has. The hope is that a much longer rollout is almost exactly the same as the current one. The problem is when the much longer rollout is slightly different from the current one. The problem I had with extending David's rollouts previously was that they are all built upon themselves...in this case, the whole Post-Crawford MET depends on PCr -2 so if I extend PCr -2 the rest of the MET may change, but doing every RO to such length is unfeasible.
In any case this one is pretty close.
4-away:
                          |
| |||||||||||||||
| XGID=-b----EBB---eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:3:6:0:7:8 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 50.27% (G: 14.19% B: 1.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 49.73% (G: 16.88% B: 1.80%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 50.65% (G: 14.21% B: 2.53%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 49.35% (G: 17.50% B: 2.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.151 |
| Double: | +0.980 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.899 (-0.078) |
| Double/Take: | +0.978 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.022) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.007 (+0.892...+0.907) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.010 (+0.968...+0.987) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 7 hours 49 minutes 57 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: New GNU
2-away:
|
| |||||||||||||||
| XGID=-b----EBB---eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:5:6:0:7:8 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 50.08% (G: 15.23% B: 1.37%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 49.92% (G: 15.91% B: 1.56%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 50.21% (G: 17.50% B: 2.52%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 49.79% (G: 16.77% B: 2.13%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.306 |
| Double: | +1.008 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.919 (-0.081) |
| Double/Take: | +1.008 (+0.008) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.005 (+0.914...+0.923) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.007 (+1.002...+1.015) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.3% |
| Duration: 16 hours 05 minutes 24 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: New GNU