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21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far..update and CI etc
Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
In Response To: 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far (Timothy Chow)
Timothy wrote :That is true, but note that 95% confidence means, roughly speaking, that you'll be wrong 1 out of 20 times. I presume you're studying more than 20 opening decisions. If you're going to be taking the results of your computations as "ground truth" for the next 5 years, you may want to make sure that your opening book has fewer than 1 mistake out of every 20 decisions, especially when the mistake is easily fixable by doing a longer computation."
Neil replies, this is a good point, but we are dealing with comparing one play with another and the 95% CI's don't overlap, or barely touch, the overall confidence that one play is superior to the other is significantly greater than 95%.
Here's an update after about 12000 games for the top two plays.
XG says that S has 99.4% chance to be the best, Z has 0.6% and N has 0.0%.
If you take the reported 95% CI for each play and do the math to get back to sd and then calculate jsd and look at a jsd table, I think you'll find that these figures are close to accurate.
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 164Money session
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=bECdEacdaB:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 to play 62
1. Rollout^{1} 24/18 13/11 eq: 0.291
Player:
Opponent:43.93% (G:11.15% B:0.67%)
56.07% (G:18.84% B:1.06%)Conf: ± 0.006 (0.297...0.285)
Duration: 19 hours 25 minutes2. Rollout^{2} 24/22 13/7 eq: 0.301 (0.010)
Player:
Opponent:43.31% (G:11.59% B:0.67%)
56.69% (G:17.91% B:1.02%)Conf: ± 0.006 (0.307...0.295)
Duration: 18 hours 25 minutes3. Rollout^{3} 13/7 6/4 eq: 0.307 (0.017)
Player:
Opponent:43.36% (G:12.10% B:0.71%)
56.64% (G:18.18% B:1.43%)Conf: ± 0.007 (0.314...0.300)
Duration: 12 hours 31 minutes^{1} 12325 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
^{2} 12324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
^{3} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 plyeXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

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