Here's what's wrong with the RO's posted so far.
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Money game cube action (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 4:16 p.m.
In Response To: Money game cube action (Timothy Chow)
GNU 2 ply grossly underestimates the leader's chances in this position (like many holding games) and XG 3 ply also clearly underestimates chances. XG 4 ply is somewhat better here. As we see after 61 by both sides the position is a HUGE pass, but both GNU and XG 3 ply still take the cube. XG 4 ply passes now. As a result an XG 4 ply cube RO of the initial position should privide a significantly more accurate assessment of the decision to cube this or not. (XG 4 ply also underestimates the leader's chances here, but not by enough to cause nearly as many bad takes later.
When you have a RO result that is showing as TG for a position that certainly cannot be TG, it is because the bot is making bad takes later on. This is common when the bot (like many do) clearly overestimates the trailer's chances in a holding game.
is Player 2
is Player 1
XGID=----abEBCC---Baaab-cbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 77.98% (G: 7.58% B: 0.19%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22.02% (G: 1.89% B: 0.06%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 78.80% (G: 7.42% B: 0.17%) Opponent Winning Chances: 21.20% (G: 1.77% B: 0.06%) Cubeless Equities No Double: +0.560 Double: +1.267 Cubeful Equities No Double: +1.017 Double/Take: +1.140 (+0.123) Double/Drop: +1.000 (-0.017) Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: Random
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+1.005...+1.030) Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+1.125...+1.156) Double Decision confidence: 99.7% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12
GNU 2 ply thinks the diagrammed position is a .91 take !!
XG 3 ply says .984 take. XG 4 ply says 1.02 pass.
We see in the above RO that XG 3 ply is making some bad takes next roll as well.
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