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BGonline.org Forums
Seemed pretty clear but I got this one wrong...
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Seemed pretty clear but I got this one wrong... (rory)
Date: Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 8:55 p.m.
Even the all knowing Rory Pascar wouldn't be silly enough to hit or leave a shot here so that narrows the plays down to three safe plays, 8/5 6/5, 6/2, and 5/1. There is some bot info at the end of this post.
We can immediately muck 8/5 6/5 because it's clearly the least flexible of the plays stacking 6 checkers on one point and leaving no distribution whatsoever.
Now we have the standout human play of 5/1 which I believe any rational non bot would make OtB and probably the play you're getting dinged for, and 6/2. 5/1 leaves a lot of decent numbers next shake that either PoH or make the 4pt, both facilitating your trip home. The biggest horror after 5/1 is rolling a 51 next turn. (though 54 is nothing to write home about either)
6/2 leaves a few P&P numbers, numbers that make the now slotted 2pt and bring more flex to the position, and the rare entity that makes the 4pt.
Having made my decision of playing 5/1 I shoved the position into XG to see what I already knew it would spit out at me, it prefers 6/2. One common argument for this type of play is the race. 6/2 is clearly better than 5/1 for the race so if the race is too close this would be a consideration. Here however the race is not close as you're leading by over 20 pips after the roll. I have looked at how all the immediate sequences play both after 6/2 and 5/1 and seen the bot rollout results. I still have no idea why 6/2 would be better than 5/1 and until someone enlightens me I will play 5/1 in this position.
Stick
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