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61P-31P-21 and 61P-61P-21, comparing P to $
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 61P-31P-21 XG 4 ply RO (Max Urban)
Date: Friday, 23 April 2010, at 3:40 a.m.
61P-31P-21 (P is best; $ is a blunder)
Max [addressing 61P-31P-21]: Where does 13/11 6/5 rank? I assume it's not a contender if you didn't include it?
61P-61P-21 ($ is a hair better than P)
Neil: 11 and 5 slotting while leaving a 2nd blot and not actually making the 5 pt is not a contender: Click here.
Max: I agree. Playing 13/11 6/5 would definitely be worse than playing 7/5 6/5, but I thought that unstacking the two heavy points and having 8s, 6s and 1s to cover the slotted 5 point might put it into 3rd or 4th place.
Nack: Let's compare 61P-31P-21 (first diagram above) to 61P-61P-21 (second diagram above). In the former position, $ (Slot, 13/11 6/5) is in fifth place and about .06 worse than P (Point, 7/5 6/5). By contrast, in the latter position, $ and P are about equal (actually, $ is a touch better, according to Miran's XG 20k rollout). Why such a big difference? (you ask).
The stronger White's board, generally the worse it is for Blue to slot. It is particularly inefficient to slot against White's made 5pt, because doing so no longer duplicates 31, and only in this case is it right for her to hit with 11 (and hugely so). Compare top right-hand and bottom right-hand diagrams below.
The next most important swing roll is 44. White can play this doublet by making a four-point prime in the bottom left-hand diagram (below); its a greater improvement to her position than the one she can procure in the top left. Instead, when Blue slots, White can hit with 44 (or 22) and make a three-point board in the top right; not so in the bottom right.
Finally, the 64 double-hit is more devastating in the top right diagram than in the bottom right, and to a lesser extent the other 4s (single hits) are a factor. The overall effect of the remaining 6s and 4s (those not mentioned so far) seems to balance out.
Nack
61P-31P-21P
61P-31P-21$
61P-61P-21P
61P-61P-21$
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