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OLM Fr 04/23/10

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Sunday, 25 April 2010, at 3:12 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 04/23/10 (Jason Lee)

Ugly here no matter what.

After 13/11, its either strip the mid or hit loose. They're both undesirable and they look close. With the non-hit I count 14 numbers that either make the opponent's bar or 4 point that would not otherwise do so after the hit, and of course the 66 and 65 response to the hit is pretty awful. So aside from the added flexibility and future safety if we get away with the hit, there is also quite a bit of tempo value in delaying our opponent's development. This seems to be a pretty clear net plus for the hit. On the other hand, it seems to me that with a centered cube, the safe play has a cubeful advantage over the hit. Getting hit back looks like it is likely to produce a relatively efficient double by our opponent. However with the non-hit, they will not be able to double unless things go bad. And when they go bad, they go very bad. It seems much more likely to result in a market loss in that case or an early double out of anticipation of things going bad - but few efficient cubes. So small plus for the non-hit there. On balance, I think the tempo and positional advantages of the hit outweigh the cubeful advantages of the non-hit.

13/11 6/1*

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