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The kind of position JOH likes to post

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 3:28 a.m.

In Response To: The kind of position JOH likes to post (Timothy Chow)

White needs 9% cgwc to take and Blue needs about 88% cgwc to redouble. (So R+T "window" is 3% cgwc wide.)

A Kleinman Count of 3 is 89% cubeless wins for Blue (so in the window). Using Ward+Kleinman, add 10 pips to White's count (3x2 pips for crossovers and 2x2 pips for two more checkers on the acepoint than the unpenalized 2). If you don't charge Blue anything for the 4-point gap (you should), then the KC is 19^2/123 or 361/123 which is less than 369/123 (=3). ANY penalty for Blue's gap makes this a NR.

For me, the size of the skill difference is irrelevant. What matters is if A) opp understands the Fish Book principles, B) thinks this is within a few %-age points of a pass between even players, and C) considers himself better than me. In that case I cash.

NR

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