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BGonline.org Forums
One of the many themes I can't seem to get right...
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: One of the many themes I can't seem to get right... (David Rennie)
Date: Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 1:51 a.m.
A big component of this position is that White is on the bar. That gives Blue extra latitude -- taking advantage of opponent's weaknesses. Consideration of 'safe' plays should be muted (although obviously not ignored).
Blue is heavy on the 13-point and thin on the 8-point. 13/8 should be strongly considered. If that's the 5 then the deuce isn't likely to be 20/18. The 18-point is easily attacked by White and not much (if any) better than the 20-point for Blue. There are still several candidates for the deuce: {24/22, 13/11, 6/4}.
6/4 is (IMO) the first to be rejected as it doesn't really improve Blue's position so it's 'protective' play which decreases Blue's long-term flexibility when Blue doesn't necessarily need protecting.
24/22 treads water (in the least), improves Blue's coverage of White's outfield, and starts a better defensive point.
13/11 is double edged as it creates a new homeside builder but (when the cup is half empty) creates a new blot=target.
White's 2-point is also dual-edged. It's a very good point if Blue is on the bar but it's not a particularly good blocking/priming point (with higher gaps) and in particular if Blue's deepest checker is higher than this point, it's especially poor. That argues for 24/22.
Certainly Blue should respect the fact that he is outboarded 3::2. It's nice that White has four blots but note that White is on roll, which takes away a lot of the disadvantage. I'm choosing a tweener play -- typically a precarious choice.
13/8, 24/22
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