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Example of play prediction method

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 17 May 2013, at 12:36 p.m.

In Response To: Example of play prediction method (Rick Janowski)

My rollout for 2a4a disagrees with whatever you are using. Z is best by a small amount. I believe this has been done and confirmed using 4-ply.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 4 point match pip: 167 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:32:2:0:0:4:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.3293
	Player: Opponent: 49.41% (G:15.55% B:2.34%) 50.59% (G:13.62% B:1.14%) Conf.: ±0.0036 (-0.3329...-0.3258) - [53.8%] Duration: 5 hours 42 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.3296 (-0.0003)
	Player: Opponent: 49.83% (G:15.73% B:2.50%) 50.17% (G:13.68% B:1.12%) Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.3333...-0.3260) - [46.2%] Duration: 5 hours 52 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/11 13/10	eq: -0.3584 (-0.0290)
	Player: Opponent: 49.42% (G:16.95% B:2.52%) 50.58% (G:14.19% B:1.74%) Conf.: ±0.0090 (-0.3674...-0.3494) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1282080 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1282080 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
  Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 15 May 2013, at 4:57 p.m.
  • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
    Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 15 May 2013, at 5:43 p.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 15 May 2013, at 6:00 p.m.
  • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 12:52 a.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      David Rockwell -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 2:25 a.m.
      • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
        Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 2:13 p.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 2:01 p.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      AdamStocks -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 5:39 p.m.
      • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
        Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
          AdamStocks -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 6:26 p.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 6:09 p.m.
      • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
        Tom Keith -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 6:36 p.m.
  • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 2:14 a.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 2:40 p.m.
      • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 6:05 p.m.
  • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
    Douglas Zare -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 9:09 p.m.
    • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 10:13 p.m.
      • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
        Rick Janowski -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 1:54 a.m.
        • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 5:33 a.m.
        • 64P-52
          Michael Nielsen -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 8:58 p.m.
          • Rick's Method Seems to Work with this 64P-52
            Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 11:24 p.m.
      • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
        Douglas Zare -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 8:00 p.m.
  • GG/GS versus GG+/GS+
    David Levy -- Thursday, 16 May 2013, at 9:14 p.m.
  • Example of play prediction method
    Rick Janowski -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 9:00 a.m.
    • Example of play prediction method
      David Rockwell -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 12:36 p.m.
      • Example of play prediction method
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 2:20 p.m.
        • Example of play prediction method
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 3:26 p.m.
          • Example of play prediction method
            Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 4:34 p.m.
          • Example of play prediction method
            Michael Nielsen -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 8:28 p.m.
            • Example of play prediction method
              Timothy Chow -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 11:37 p.m.
        • Example of play prediction method - Bumps
          Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 18 May 2013, at 9:59 a.m.
      • Opening 32 — 2-away, 4-away — Link to 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Taper_Mike -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 5:17 p.m.
      • Example of play prediction method
        Rick Janowski -- Friday, 17 May 2013, at 7:08 p.m.
  • When GG and GG+ diverge: 62s 66
    Jeremy Bagai -- Saturday, 18 May 2013, at 2:59 a.m.
    • When GG and GG+ diverge: 62s 66
      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 18 May 2013, at 9:41 a.m.
  • Gammon Go (GG) and Gammon Save (GS) Considerations
    Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 18 May 2013, at 6:24 a.m.