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Explain this XG result please

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 29 April 2014, at 1:56 p.m.

In Response To: Explain this XG result please (Bob Koca)

I saw this at the tournament and like everyone else present got it wrong. The short answer to the question is that getting hit with 65 is so bad that it almost offsets the loss on crushing small numbers after breaking anchor. But, close inspection reveals something else which human eyes are likely to miss. Containment plays like 17-12 usually have the idea of creating a direct shot following escaping sixes. In this positions, this move fails to accomplish that objective. 61 and 62 will be played 24-18, X-1*. After these, the blot on the 12 point is more of a liability than an asset. After 64 played 24-14, there is better contact staying back on the 17 point. And neither move contains 66. Only 63 played 24-18, 7-4* encourages us to hold the anchor. These rolls are enough to make breaking anchor the better play.

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