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Small tournament without Crawford - Advice needed

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Wednesday, 28 May 2014, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Small tournament without Crawford - Advice needed (Grant Hoffman)

Let's see what a correct strategy would be at each score compared to standard rules.

-1-1: Same as usual

-2-p/-p-2: Same as usual

-2-2: Winning a single point is now almost useless. Double as soon as you are a favorite. The doubling window opens at 50% and closes at 51.5%.

-3-p/-p-3: Same as usual

-2-3: Winning 1 point takes you to 68%, winning 2 gives you the match, losing 1 or 2 takes you respectively to 50% or 48,5%; losing 4 loses the match.
In a live cube position, the cubeless doubling window opens at 61% and closes at 68%.
In a last roll position you should double as long as you have more than 4.5%

-3-2: Winning 1 takes you to 50%, winning 2 takes you to 51.5%, winning 4 gives you the match, losing 1 takes you to 32%, losing 2 loses the match.

Without gammons, the doubling window opens at 95.5% and closes at 97%.

With gammons, you can double much earlier as each gammon won is worth about the same as each loss:
- with 0% gammons won, opponent's take point is 3%
- with 5% gammons won, opponent's take point is 7.5%
- with 10% gammons won, opponent's take point is 12.3%
- with 15% gammons won, opponent's take point is 17%
- with 20% gammons won, opponent's take point is 21.7%
- with 25% gammons won, opponent's take point is 26.5%
- with 30% gammons won, opponent's take point is 31%
- with 35% gammons won, opponent's take point is 35.9%
- with 40% gammons won, opponent's take point is 40%

-3-3: With the cube on 2, the gammon price for both players is just below 1 (i.e. 32/36). So if the game gets doubled both players should play more aggressively.

As far as cube management at this score, assuming you are the best player and that other players do not adjust properly to the formula, I would recommend a conservative approach;
winning or losing 1 point takes you to unfamiliar and complicated scores where you probably have an additional advantage as compared to getting to -3-p or -p-3.

Comments and correction to what I wrote are encouraged!

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