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31P-22E-65R-54 -- Rollout, lame analysis, and further questions

Posted By: Igor
Date: Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 3:21 p.m.

In Response To: 31P-22E-65R-54 (Igor)

I would have played two down for all the same reasons Mike and Casper mentioned. But running is still best here despite the fact we are not leading in the race.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-C-C---fE---b-db-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:6
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	22/13	eq: -0.102
	Player: Opponent: 47.83% (G:7.58% B:0.26%) 52.17% (G:10.79% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.107...-0.098) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.120 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 46.25% (G:11.01% B:0.33%) 53.75% (G:9.20% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.124...-0.115) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 23 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/4	eq: -0.144 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 45.66% (G:10.55% B:0.29%) 54.34% (G:9.09% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.150...-0.138) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 15 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74176308 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74176308 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I won't pretend I understand what is going on here. But Dmitriy's question game me an idea for the following variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-D-B---fE---b-db-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:6
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.081
	Player: Opponent: 47.08% (G:12.02% B:0.33%) 52.92% (G:9.06% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.086...-0.077) - [88.3%] Duration: 55 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/13	eq: -0.085 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 48.25% (G:8.91% B:0.32%) 51.75% (G:11.71% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.090...-0.080) - [11.7%] Duration: 58 minutes 11 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1448662 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

With 8pt stripped, bringing two down puts a spare on the 8pt and hence goes up in relative equity compared to running. But it's still not enough to make two down a clear winner.

So, why is running best in the OP? I don't really know. We are not afraid of leaving the anchor due to the same 8 checkers in the zone stuff; besides in this position white's spares are stacked on the 6pt whereas in the 31P-22E-41E-54 they were split between 5pt and 6pt. But why should we run when not ahead in the race? Perhaps running is more flexible than bringing two down since race is pretty much even? Perhaps we don't want to commit to an attack so early in the game?

I hope some of our resident experts can provide further insight into this position.

Messages In This Thread

• 31P-22E-65R-54
  Igor -- Friday, 12 December 2014, at 5:11 a.m.
  • 31P-22E-65R-54
    Taper_Mike -- Friday, 12 December 2014, at 6:09 a.m.
    • 31P-22E-65R-54
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 12 December 2014, at 6:20 a.m.
  • 31P-22E-65R-54
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 12 December 2014, at 11:49 p.m.
    • 31P-22E-65R-54
      Igor -- Saturday, 13 December 2014, at 12:28 a.m.
      • 31P-22E-65R-54
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 13 December 2014, at 5:40 a.m.
        • 31P-22E-65R-54
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 December 2014, at 3:37 p.m.
          • 31P-22E-65R-54
            Igor -- Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 1:43 a.m.
  • 31P-22E-65R-54 -- Rollout, lame analysis, and further questions
    Igor -- Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 3:21 p.m.
    • 31P-22E-65R-54 -- Rollout, lame analysis, and further questions
      Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 3:36 p.m.
    • 31P-22E-65R-54 -- Rollout, lame analysis, and further questions
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 December 2014, at 7:38 p.m.