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BGonline.org Forums
What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants
Posted By: HOMINID
Date: Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 4:19 p.m.
In Response To: What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants (Timothy Chow)
In these positions its the same story, do I run for home now or save pips on the other side of the board. In the first variant the computer says run, in the second it says save pips. The only difference is that in the first variant whites 2 point is made. In the second position whites 3 point is made . A subtle difference which demands an explanation. As usual it's all about the roll odds.. If one runs obviously the chances of blue being pointed on, hit loose or suffer a pick and pass do not change much. The point is that if one of these events occur blue has good counterplay in variant 1 I have not counted the odds but I can see visually that they do exist. Others may count them to prove a point. By moving the made point to 3 in the second example this counterplay is lost. It's your risk and reward thingy being decided by roll odds .
With regard to variant three "lack of understanding of the position on XG's part." Some people find it comforting to believe that XG does not understand some positions. The real truth is that if you use rollouts with inadequate settings you will of course get inadequate output in complicated positions like the above examples. I analyse at a high level and have never received answers which I couldn't visually justify, Even though not doing complicated roll counts to prove the point. If it walks like a duck etc XG is correct.
It may be that XG does not understand some positions but is certainly not guilty of such in recent posts alluded to it. Perhaps the answer is confirmation bias on account inefficient analysis.
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