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OLM 20160117A The Prime Factors Consultation

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 17 January 2016, at 5:59 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20160117A The Prime Factors Consultation (Jason Lee)

I warned you I might not be finished talking about this turn.

In my original post I failed to mention 13/7(2) [Havard's choice] and often that means I missed seeing it. Not the case -- I just felt with the race close the extra 6 pips we gain moving our anchor up (and the extra 3 moving the 3rd checker up) gave us better timing. Is the 18-point better than the 21-point in general? I don't know. But no position is ever general so when looking at this one I prefer the 18-point.

I also failed to state that the (made) 10-point is 6 away from the already owned 4-point. I'm more allergic to this malady than most but in the least I feel that there should be a GOOD reason to make points 6-apart. I don't see that good reason here.

So I think the debate isn't about the first three 3's [21/18(3)] but rather the last one: 6/3 vs. 13/10.

I didn't see anyone singing the praises of slotting the 3-point because we really want that point now. It was more of a lesser of evils. 13/10 (the only reasonable alternative once you've tripled the defensive barpoint) apparently is viewed as the greater of evils.

So what are the rolls we don't want to see if we were to blot on the 10-point? 14 and 16 hit and cover. However those give up the outfield control (not a big loss after a hit) and leave two blots in our outfield. I guess you could (will?) argue that our blotted 5-point takes some of the sting out of the return hits this play generates, and I would agree. But even so we are talking about only their best 4/36 responses, and none of those sends a shiver down my spine. How many of the seven other aces are they going to hit with? 11? Probably because the alternatives are limited. That leaves us 12 hitting numbers. 21 and 31 volunteer one inside blot and one outside blot if they hit. Not much of a concession on our part. Note all five of these just mentioned rolls leave us with the better homeboard. Finally, hitting with 51 gives us three blots to shoot at. Even the most paranoid among us should relish that tradeoff.

OK, what are the pluses of 13/10? If the blot survives we have two coverers for our blotted 5-point (compared to none after 6/3). We've diversified our outside spares -- one on the 18 point and one on the 13-point in both cases, but now one on the 10-point instead of a second on the 13-point. Is it worth it?

I indicated that (besides a hopefully lively discussion) I wanted a consultation so hopefully we don't end up with 21(2), 10(2) as our choice. The debate isn't over but I think that one is in the rearview mirror. I can live with 6/3 but 13/10 just looks, sounds, smells, feels, and tastes better. :)

First choice: 21/18(3), 13/10

Second choice: 21/18(3), 6/3

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