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Is All Equity Equal?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 14 May 2016, at 12:38 a.m.

In Response To: Is All Equity Equal? (Timothy Chow)

Very thoughtful and insightful response. However, IMO the most relevant and important (in terms of reality vs. misconception) is:

The crucial fact, which is typically misunderstood by almost everyone in the backgammon community, is that the "equity" reported by the bots applies only to equilibrium play (often misleadingly referred to as "perfect play"). That is, it is calculated under the assumption that both players will play just like the bots do.

I emphasize that this is a ridiculous assumption, even for the most expert of today's players. Looking at bot rollout results certainly increases our knowledge of the game when kept in context. But to conclude that when a bot says a play was an x.xx error for itself playing against itself carries over to fallible human A vs. fallible human B is not only fallacious in magnitude, but potentially even fallacious in sign.

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