The rollout confirms making the 5 point to be correct. The duplication plays a big part in this decision together with the fact that whites re-entry chances are reduced by 24% a nice latent threat. A well known player once opined "if you think it's a double but you are not sure then do it" not good advice in my book. What about the 5 point, sounds like a good idea to me. Seldom is it not the best play. A good tip until you have calculating roll odds in your tool box.
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| XGID=-BcBB-C-B--Ac-B-Ac-cb-a---:1:-1:1:31:5:4:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 31 | |||||
1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/5 | eq: +0.3760 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/13 11/10 | eq: +0.3454 (-0.0306) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/15 11/8 | eq: +0.3436 (-0.0324) | |||
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4. | Rollout2 | 16/13 14/13 | eq: +0.3032 (-0.0729) | |||
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| 5. | XG Roller+ | 16/15 14/11 | eq: +0.2777 (-0.0983) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled. Dice Seed: 2949020 Cubeless First 8 moves: 4-ply Remaining moves: 4-ply Search interval: Huge 2 2592 Games rolled. Dice Seed: 2949020 Cubeless First 8 moves: 4-ply Remaining moves: 4-ply Search interval: Huge | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2