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Reference Cusp

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 6 June 2017, at 6:35 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Igor)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
3 point match
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aBBC-C---eC-A-d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

42P-65R-52D-65R-61P-21D-63H-53Z-C
Borderline TOO GOOD


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.67% (G:31.95% B:0.84%) 70.64% (G:33.88% B:1.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.33% (G:5.53% B:0.43%) 29.36% (G:6.23% B:0.60%)
Cubeless Equities +0.825 +1.733
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.003±0.006 (+0.997..+1.009)
Double/Take:+1.443 (+0.440)±0.010 (+1.433..+1.452)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.003)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90021487
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:84.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35 minutes 15 seconds

Above is another –3–3 borderline-too-good reference cusp.

Compare to Tim's position below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
3 point match
pip: 118
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BaBCB--B--bBbA-bceA-----:0:0:1:00:4:4:0:7:10
Way TOO GOOD

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.27% (G:37.35% B:0.84%) 73.98% (G:38.73% B:2.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.73% (G:5.20% B:0.29%) 26.02% (G:5.39% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.988 +2.044
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.078±0.010 (+1.068..+1.089)
Double/Take:+1.771 (+0.693)±0.018 (+1.753..+1.789)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.078)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 10.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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