OTB I was spot on for $ play as this is a nice ref. pos. for an optional drop or take. (I didn't know that but when comparing to 52S-55K-F which XGR++ says is about -1.13 to take and I seem to recall a RO making it a tad worse) seemed reasonable here. So when my opp took at 9a12a and was quickly crushed and G'd and asked me if he should've taken, I gave him the following analysis.
"Comparing to 52S-55 which is a clear easy pass, I think this position is a borderline drop take. This would be where my analysis OTB would end leading 6-3 to 15 as the GV on these catch up cubes is going to be somewhat more than the normal .5 and since your vig to recube to 4 is somewhat less than normal. Thus you just pass without further thought as long as you assess the position as quite close to a drop/take for $."
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| XGID=bB---BB-B---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.406% (G:35.586% B:0.571%) | 66.634% (G:38.042% B:0.548%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.594% (G:7.799% B:0.378%) | 33.366% (G:8.286% B:0.446%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6079 | +1.2625 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.8255 (-0.1725) | ±0.0060 (+0.8195..+0.8315) |
| Double/Take: | +0.9981 | ±0.0092 (+0.9888..+1.0073) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0019) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 66.0% | |
| Duration: 57 minutes 50 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
XGR++ says there's about a .0175 difference in emg after taking this at 0-0 rather than 6-3 in a 15 pt match. That number is larger than my estimate of .012 but either way my opp needed to drop this.