Game number 6

The score (after 5 games) is: kit&stick 2, ed&howard 4 (match to 19 points)

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Move number 1: ed&howard to play 52

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIlqAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/22 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/22 13/8	+0.0135
			0.5098 0.1365 0.0055 - 0.4902 0.1298 0.0035
	2	2	13/11 13/8	+0.0130 ( -0.0004)
			0.5072 0.1510 0.0071 - 0.4928 0.1376 0.0052
	3	2	13/8 6/4	-0.0381 ( -0.0516)
			0.4960 0.1389 0.0054 - 0.5040 0.1388 0.0058
	4	2	13/6	-0.0679 ( -0.0813)
			0.4878 0.1376 0.0062 - 0.5122 0.1432 0.0051

Move number 2: kit&stick to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 160
Position ID: 4PPgASTgc/ABMA Match ID: MAFmAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8	-0.1250
			0.4646 0.1174 0.0031 - 0.5354 0.1501 0.0056
	2	2	24/23 24/20	-0.1382 ( -0.0131)
			0.4650 0.1035 0.0032 - 0.5350 0.1461 0.0040
	3	2	8/3*	-0.1781 ( -0.0530)
			0.4521 0.1194 0.0042 - 0.5479 0.1650 0.0088
	4	2	24/23 13/9	-0.1845 ( -0.0595)
			0.4504 0.1149 0.0033 - 0.5496 0.1614 0.0060

Move number 3: ed&howard to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 162, ed&howard 160
Position ID: 4PPgATDg8+ABJA Match ID: cIluAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/3 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3 6/3	+0.1412
			0.5403 0.1620 0.0072 - 0.4597 0.1243 0.0037
	2	2	24/16	-0.0085 ( -0.1497)
			0.5139 0.1232 0.0055 - 0.4861 0.1433 0.0037
	3	2	24/21 13/8	-0.0228 ( -0.1639)
			0.5026 0.1367 0.0071 - 0.4974 0.1410 0.0037
	4	2	13/10 13/8	-0.0561 ( -0.1972)
			0.4919 0.1421 0.0065 - 0.5081 0.1456 0.0048

Move number 4: kit&stick to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 162, ed&howard 152
Position ID: jOfgASTg8+ABMA Match ID: MIFpAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 6/3*/1*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/3/1	-0.2477
			0.4372 0.1186 0.0034 - 0.5628 0.1810 0.0101
	2	2	13/11 6/3*	-0.3056 ( -0.0579)
			0.4285 0.1150 0.0043 - 0.5715 0.1993 0.0149
	3	2	24/21 13/11	-0.3072 ( -0.0595)
			0.4314 0.1095 0.0041 - 0.5686 0.2051 0.0084
	4	2	13/8	-0.3158 ( -0.0681)
			0.4217 0.1049 0.0029 - 0.5783 0.1811 0.0083

Move number 5: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 157, ed&howard 156
Position ID: wfPgATCM5+ABYA Match ID: cIlpAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/23 bar/22

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/23 bar/22	+0.1946
			0.5567 0.1644 0.0093 - 0.4433 0.1256 0.0036

Move number 6: kit&stick to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 157, ed&howard 151
Position ID: jOfgARTB8+ABMA Match ID: MIFmAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 24/23 6/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 6/1	-0.2719
			0.4289 0.1176 0.0025 - 0.5711 0.1835 0.0060
	2	2	24/23 13/8	-0.3306 ( -0.0588)
			0.4196 0.1076 0.0030 - 0.5804 0.1985 0.0061
	3	2	8/3/2	-0.3663 ( -0.0945)
			0.4112 0.1156 0.0034 - 0.5888 0.2037 0.0142
	4	2	8/7 6/1	-0.4006 ( -0.1288)
			0.3953 0.1173 0.0030 - 0.6047 0.1950 0.0126

Move number 7: ed&howard to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 151, ed&howard 151
Position ID: g/PgASiM5+ABFA Match ID: cIlmAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 23/22 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/22 13/8	+0.2268
			0.5575 0.1672 0.0037 - 0.4425 0.1019 0.0016
	2	2	23/22 8/3	+0.1312 ( -0.0957)
			0.5307 0.1650 0.0034 - 0.4693 0.1125 0.0020
	3	2	23/22 6/1*	+0.1292 ( -0.0976)
			0.5299 0.1707 0.0035 - 0.4701 0.1163 0.0024
	4	2	22/21 13/8	+0.1197 ( -0.1071)
			0.5396 0.1619 0.0058 - 0.4604 0.1380 0.0031

Move number 8: kit&stick to play 21

Pip counts: kit&stick 151, ed&howard 145
Position ID: jOfBAQyD8+ABKA Match ID: MAFlAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 23/20

Ply

Move

Equity

24/23 13/11

-0.3473

0.4049	0.1081	0.0032	-	0.5951	0.1549	0.0060	-0.2375	-0.3473
0.0014	0.0015	0.0003	-	0.0014	0.0018	0.0004	0.0037	0.0094

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056271360 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

23/20

-0.3776 ( -0.0303)

0.4120	0.1016	0.0033	-	0.5880	0.1927	0.0064	-0.2696	-0.3776
0.0013	0.0013	0.0003	-	0.0013	0.0018	0.0004	0.0034	0.0086

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056271360 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

24/23 8/6

-0.3815 ( -0.0342)

0.3986	0.1025	0.0029	-	0.6014	0.1529	0.0066	-0.2548	-0.3815
0.0015	0.0014	0.0002	-	0.0015	0.0019	0.0006	0.0041	0.0102

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056271360 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

24/21

-0.3486 ( -0.0013)

0.4170 0.0979 0.0019 - 0.5830 0.1914 0.0050

Annotation

I know better than to jet to the point they'd like to make, so why do it here? Why give them good threes? Anchoring on the two point is a sort of wait and see game, which would be fine in this position.

Move number 9: ed&howard to play 55

Pip counts: kit&stick 148, ed&howard 145
Position ID: g/PgASGM58EBDA Match ID: cIl2AiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/3 6/1*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/3 6/1*(2)	+0.4207
			0.5918 0.2120 0.0027 - 0.4082 0.0944 0.0010
	2	2	13/8(2) 6/1*(2)	+0.3406 ( -0.0801)
			0.5667 0.1941 0.0023 - 0.4333 0.0824 0.0008
	3	2	8/3(2) 6/1*(2)	+0.2504 ( -0.1703)
			0.5567 0.1931 0.0025 - 0.4433 0.1052 0.0012
	4	2	13/3 13/8(2)	+0.1557 ( -0.2650)
			0.5366 0.1462 0.0019 - 0.4634 0.0875 0.0009

Move number 10: kit&stick to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 149, ed&howard 125
Position ID: c8yDAQyD8+ABQQ Match ID: MAFmAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20	-0.0664
			0.4726 0.0939 0.0009 - 0.5274 0.0972 0.0005
	2	0	bar/21 8/7	-0.4171 ( -0.3507)
			0.4120 0.1023 0.0016 - 0.5880 0.2534 0.0059
	3	0	bar/21 6/5	-0.5029 ( -0.4365)
			0.3957 0.0931 0.0015 - 0.6043 0.2747 0.0069

Move number 11: ed&howard to play 31

Pip counts: kit&stick 144, ed&howard 125
Position ID: g/PgAQNzzIMBDA Match ID: cIllAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4	+0.0600
			0.5250 0.1138 0.0009 - 0.4750 0.1079 0.0011
	2	2	22/18	-0.0955 ( -0.1555)
			0.4944 0.1166 0.0012 - 0.5056 0.1550 0.0020
	3	2	13/9	-0.2010 ( -0.2610)
			0.4398 0.1103 0.0010 - 0.5602 0.1089 0.0011
	4	2	13/10 3/2	-0.2110 ( -0.2709)
			0.4384 0.1138 0.0013 - 0.5616 0.1142 0.0016

Move number 12: kit&stick to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 144, ed&howard 121
Position ID: c5mDAQyD8+ABAw Match ID: MAFuAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/6	-0.0298
			0.4772 0.1160 0.0014 - 0.5228 0.0995 0.0009
	2	2	13/10 8/4	-0.1294 ( -0.0996)
			0.4610 0.1284 0.0021 - 0.5390 0.1530 0.0028
	3	2	13/10 6/2	-0.1699 ( -0.1402)
			0.4423 0.1113 0.0015 - 0.5577 0.1194 0.0015
	4	2	13/10 13/9	-0.2220 ( -0.1922)
			0.4409 0.1169 0.0019 - 0.5591 0.1664 0.0029

Move number 13: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 137, ed&howard 121
Position ID: g+fBAQNzmYMBDA Match ID: cIlpAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/6 4/1

Annotation

I would still be sorely tempted to play 13/8 here. I don't like killing that checker esp. with another semi dead checker already lingering on the three point.

Move number 14: kit&stick to play 54

Pip counts: kit&stick 137, ed&howard 116
Position ID: 5ziDAQyD58EBAw Match ID: MIFyAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/8 6/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8 6/2	+0.1036
			0.5085 0.1343 0.0011 - 0.4915 0.0860 0.0005
	2	2	13/4	+0.0775 ( -0.0261)
			0.5027 0.1422 0.0016 - 0.4973 0.1032 0.0008
	3	2	20/11	-0.0635 ( -0.1671)
			0.4892 0.1206 0.0017 - 0.5108 0.1571 0.0016
	4	2	8/4 6/1	-0.1350 ( -0.2385)
			0.4551 0.1019 0.0008 - 0.5449 0.1163 0.0008

Move number 15: ed&howard to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 128, ed&howard 116
Position ID: C+eDAQPnOIMBDA Match ID: cIluAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/10 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/10 13/8	-0.1393
			0.4591 0.1050 0.0006 - 0.5409 0.1024 0.0006
	2	2	13/8 6/3	-0.2220 ( -0.0827)
			0.4388 0.0934 0.0005 - 0.5612 0.1083 0.0006
	3	2	8/3 6/3	-0.4277 ( -0.2885)
			0.3904 0.0874 0.0004 - 0.6096 0.1432 0.0010
	4	2	13/10 6/1	-0.4642 ( -0.3249)
			0.3841 0.0855 0.0006 - 0.6159 0.1491 0.0013

Move number 16: kit&stick to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 128, ed&howard 108
Position ID: 5zgnAAwL54MBAw Match ID: MIFmAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2	+0.1806
			0.5448 0.0991 0.0003 - 0.4552 0.0714 0.0002
	2	2	20/15* 2/1	+0.1724 ( -0.0082)
			0.5591 0.1055 0.0008 - 0.4409 0.1221 0.0008
	3	2	20/15*/14	+0.0679 ( -0.1127)
			0.5367 0.1203 0.0015 - 0.4633 0.1647 0.0021
	4	2	13/12 13/8	-0.0617 ( -0.2423)
			0.4778 0.0932 0.0008 - 0.5222 0.0966 0.0006

Move number 17: ed&howard to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 122, ed&howard 108
Position ID: G86DAQPnOCcADA Match ID: cAlqAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 10/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/4	-0.1104
			0.4746 0.0866 0.0003 - 0.5254 0.0974 0.0005
	2	2	10/6 8/6	-0.1754 ( -0.0650)
			0.4564 0.0776 0.0002 - 0.5436 0.0975 0.0004
	3	2	10/8 6/2	-0.1808 ( -0.0704)
			0.4520 0.0867 0.0002 - 0.5480 0.0975 0.0004
	4	2	8/4 6/4	-0.1917 ( -0.0813)
			0.4443 0.0935 0.0005 - 0.5557 0.0972 0.0005

Move number 18: kit&stick to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 122, ed&howard 102
Position ID: 53IOAAwbzoMBAw Match ID: MAFqAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 8/4 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4 6/4	+0.3900
			0.5937 0.1397 0.0008 - 0.4063 0.0668 0.0004
	2	2	8/6 8/4	+0.0810 ( -0.3090)
			0.5126 0.1354 0.0010 - 0.4874 0.1138 0.0008
	3	0	20/18 20/16	+0.0246 ( -0.3654)
			0.5121 0.0876 0.0003 - 0.4879 0.1117 0.0004
	4	0	8/2	+0.0051 ( -0.3848)
			0.4918 0.0921 0.0002 - 0.5082 0.0819 0.0000

Move number 19: ed&howard to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 116, ed&howard 102
Position ID: m5mDAQPncg4ADA Match ID: cAlzAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/2 6/2

Annotation

No question if you don't make a break for it now when do you plan on doing it? When we have more outfield control and more builders? Position is nasty stripped after making the two point.

Move number 20: kit&stick to play 11

Pip counts: kit&stick 116, ed&howard 92
Position ID: t8sMAAybmYMBAw Match ID: MIFkAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/12(2) 8/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.2406	(Money: +0.2389)
	0.5877 0.1340 0.0012 - 0.4123 0.0716 0.0002
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.3761
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.6239
3.	Double, take	+0.2425	-0.1336
Proper cube action:		No double, take (17.6%)

Ply

Move

Equity

13/11(2)

+0.6247

0.6326	0.1787	0.0056	-	0.3674	0.0707	0.0008	+0.3857	+0.6247
0.0018	0.0033	0.0005	-	0.0018	0.0020	0.0001	0.0052	0.0132

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

482 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056271360 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

13/12(2) 8/6

+0.5738 ( -0.0509)

0.6162	0.1676	0.0055	-	0.3838	0.0600	0.0006	+0.3527	+0.5738
0.0016	0.0034	0.0007	-	0.0016	0.0019	0.0003	0.0050	0.0119

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

481 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056271360 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8/6 8/7(2)

+0.5592 ( -0.0655)

0.6261 0.1760 0.0014 - 0.3739 0.0709 0.0006

8/4

+0.5029 ( -0.1218)

0.6152 0.1663 0.0013 - 0.3848 0.0742 0.0008

Annotation

Where's KISS at when I need it? 13/11(2) brings pressure to the five point in case they split off or we roll a lucky number to make it. It also stops the joker 44. In similar situations (non made five point) it's almost always correct to play 13/11(2), I don't know why we didn't here, our hitting numbers will already be diversified if they decide to run one checker, the extra builder would be nice but the 11 point is more important.

Move number 21: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 112, ed&howard 92
Position ID: mznDAAO3ywwADA Match ID: cIlpAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 4/1 3/1

Annotation

Crafty! GNUs just my style.

Move number 22: kit&stick to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 112, ed&howard 87
Position ID: 38YMAAybOcMAAw Match ID: MIFuAiAAIAAA

• kit&stick moves 12/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.3694	(Money: +0.3669)
	0.6379 0.1466 0.0011 - 0.3621 0.0565 0.0002
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.5981
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.4019
3.	Double, take	+0.5316	-0.0666
Proper cube action:		No double, take (14.2%)

Annotation

Again we focus on the wrong thing, bringing another builder into play. In doing so we leave costly indirects whereas if we run off the anchor the best they can hope for is to pick & pass & keep us busy. It's only a four point board with no real hope of it ever being any stronger, we should bolt, instead we dolt.

Move number 23: ed&howard to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 104, ed&howard 87
Position ID: m3OGAAPfxgwADA Match ID: cAlmAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/7 8/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/7 8/4	-0.8135
			0.3174 0.0416 0.0002 - 0.6826 0.1664 0.0022
	2	2	8/3	-0.8829 ( -0.0694)
			0.3006 0.0312 0.0000 - 0.6994 0.1548 0.0008
	3	2	6/1	-1.0000 ( -0.1865)
			0.2752 0.0291 0.0000 - 0.7248 0.1780 0.0009
	4	2	8/4 3/2	-1.0000 ( -0.1865)
			0.2648 0.0274 0.0000 - 0.7352 0.1810 0.0013

Annotation

They are up quite a bit in the race and if we don't hit immediately they rate to pick up that blot, keep the four point board, and try to swing their checkers around. Things could go sour, but since me & Kit don't have the five point made and don't reckon to have the three point made with their anchor sitting on it the take is pretty huge. Happy to have the free point.

Move number 24: kit&stick doubles to 2

Pip counts: kit&stick 104, ed&howard 82
Position ID: 35YFAAybc4YAAw Match ID: MBlgAiAAIAAA

• ed&howard rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.1148)! [very bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.5120

(Money: +0.5065)

Cubeful equities:

Double, take

+0.8852

Double, pass

+1.0000

+0.1148

No double

+0.7742

-0.1110

Proper cube action:

Double, take

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0.6959	0.1453	0.0037	-	0.3041	0.0340	0.0003	+0.5120	+0.7742
Standard error	0.0020	0.0037	0.0006	-	0.0020	0.0016	0.0001	0.0054	0.0116
Player ed&howard owns 2-cube	0.7046	0.1458	0.0052	-	0.2954	0.0335	0.0005	+1.0829	+0.8852
Standard error	0.0024	0.0042	0.0008	-	0.0024	0.0017	0.0001	0.0130	0.0151

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056271360 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

kit&stick wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 6
Player	kit&stick	ed&howard
Checker play statistics
Total moves	11	12
Unforced moves	11	11
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	9	10
Moves marked doubtful	2	1
Moves marked bad	0	1
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.131 ( -0.485%)	-0.209 ( -0.774%)
Error rate (per move)	-11.91 ( -0.044%)	-19.01 ( -0.070%)
Chequerplay rating	Advanced	Casual player
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	0	0
Rolls unmarked	11	12
Rolls marked unlucky	0	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-0.436 ( -1.614%)	-0.837 ( -3.097%)
Luck rate (per move)	-39.66 ( -0.147%)	-69.74 ( -0.258%)
Luck rating	Better luck next time	Go to bed
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	12	12
Close or actual cube decisions	3	1
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	1 (-0.115 ( -0.425%))
Error rate (total)	+0.000	-0.115 ( -0.425%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	+0.00	-114.84 ( -0.425%)
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Awful!
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0.131 ( -0.485%)	-0.324 ( -1.199%)
Error rate (per decision)	-9.36 ( -0.035%)	-27.00 ( -0.100%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-5.70	-14.09
Overall rating	Advanced	Beginner
Actual result	+3.60%	-3.60%
Luck adjusted result	+2.12%	-2.12%

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Output generated Wed Mar 26 17:50:45 2008 by GNU Backgammon 0.16-mingw (HTML Export version 1.172)