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BGonline.org Forums
NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 23 January 2012, at 10:02 p.m.
Coincidentally, both of the Sunday Conference Championships (semifinals) hinged strongly on field goal attempts that ended the games, and both turned out to be very close to the same distance.
1) Baltimore trailed by 3 with with 15 seconds remaining, no timeouts, and 4th and 1 from the opponent's 14. So a successful field goal ties the game and very likely sends it to overtime.
2) The Giants, with 7:16 remaining in (the first sudden death) overtime, chose to send the FG team on the field with 3rd and goal from the opponent's 8 yardline (32 yard attempt). Surprisingly (brain fart) neither the coach nor (apparently) the holder or kicker noticed the play clock running down to zero. They were slapped with a 5 yard delay-of-game penalty so now they have to snap from the opponent's 13 yardline (31 yard field goal attempt).
A) What is the expected success rate for these field goals assuming average conditions. (Neither game had perfect weather -- cold and a bit windy in New England, raining and [always?] windy in San Francisco.)
B) How much less likely was the expected success of the Giants' FG after the brain fart than before?
C) How much (expected) GWC did the Giants' brain fart cost them?
D) Will Baltimore's kicker (Billy Cundiff) get fired for missing and will the Giants' kicker (Lawrence Tynes) get a raise for making?
E) Will anyone outside of this forum even talk (qualitatively) about the cost of NYG failing to call timeout to avoid the delay of game penalty?
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