[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Sorry, not a convincing example

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 5 May 2017, at 4:05 p.m.

In Response To: Convincing example for yes. (Bob Koca)

First of all, there are some minor typos. Let me restate Bob's argument with the typos fixed.

Match to 2, Tied at 0-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?
White315

Blue21
GNUBg Id: AADc3R3/PxAAAA:cAlAAAAAAAAA
XGID=-NcccccA------------------:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:2:2

Bob argues as follows:

If Blue doesn't double, then 11/36 of the time, Blue rolls a 6 and wins a gammon to win the match. The other 25/36 of the time, Blue gets cubed out and has about 32% MWC. Overall, ND gives about 53% MWC.

If Blue doubles, his MWC is just his chance of winning this game, which is slightly more than his 11/36 chances of rolling a 6 but certainly much less than 53%. White has a super easy take.

This is all correct, but for Blue to be TG, his ND equity has to be greater than his D/P equity. If White passes then Blue's MWC is about 68%, which is much higher than 53%.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.