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21$-62 At Match Scores

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 3:42 a.m.

In Response To: 21$-62 At Match Scores (Leonardo Jerkovic)

In Backgammon Today magazine, article says that JellyFish and Snowie3 rollouts confirm 13-7 6-4 as Magriel reccomended. Has anyone have that information how they got it?

The old Jellyfish data I have is 21$-62 [S Z11 $11 D14 R14 N16 U30], 7200 trials. So, I'm not sure where Backgammon Today got their Jellyfish info. Their source might have been a truncated rollout and/or one with too few trials (a chronic problem).

I don't seem to have kept Snowie-3 data for 21$-62, but most people weren't using live cubes for earlier versions of Snowie either, because comps were relatively slow -- they were forced to cut corners.

For Snowie-4, truncated rollouts are [Z S3 N7], and no live cube rollouts average to [Z S5 N7] 41k, whereas live cube rollouts average to [S Z9 N17] 36k.

In short, N had a better chance of randomly coming up on top in a rollout back in the earlier Snowie days, when truncs were resorted to more and a live cube was often not used (that's more than half the margin right there) and fewer trials were typically done.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
  • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 3:03 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply after 7k
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 3:42 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:00 p.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:29 p.m.
        • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:41 p.m.
          • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:00 p.m.
          • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far..update and CI etc
            neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
        Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:29 p.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 2:50 a.m.
  • 21$-62 At Match Scores
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:17 a.m.
    • 21$-62 At Match Scores
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:23 a.m.
      • 21$-62 At Match Scores
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 3:42 a.m.
    • 21$-62 At Match Scores
      David Rockwell -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:35 a.m.
      • 21$-62 At Match Scores
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
        • 21$-62 At Match Scores
          David Rockwell -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:05 p.m.
          • 21$-62 At Match Scores
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 1:31 a.m.
  • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
    aoleg1 -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:53 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 8:46 a.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
        Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:00 a.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:49 p.m.
        • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 12:59 a.m.
          • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 2:24 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:48 p.m.
    • incorrect responses
      David Rockwell -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:05 p.m.