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Rollout -- another

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 22 January 2010, at 1:56 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

3-ply cube.

Money game

Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	150
Blue	128
Position ID: WGc2gAXg2w0jAA Match ID: cAkAAEAAEAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0053)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5004
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8622
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1378
3.	Double, take	+0.8569	-0.0053
Proper cube action:		No double, take (3.7%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7278 0.0779 0.0033 - 0.2722 0.0353 0.0011 +0.5004 +0.8622 Standard error 0.0013 0.0015 0.0003 - 0.0013 0.0011 0.0002 0.0032 0.0093 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7309 0.0798 0.0032 - 0.2691 0.0365 0.0013 +1.0139 +0.8569 Standard error 0.0014 0.0017 0.0003 - 0.0014 0.0011 0.0002 0.0072 0.0147
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845183267 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4263
0.6966 0.0755 0.0011 - 0.3034 0.0426 0.0008
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.6876
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3124)
3. Double, take +0.6464 ( -0.0413)
Proper cube action: No double, take (11.7%)

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.4389
0.7044 0.0677 0.0014 - 0.2956 0.0383 0.0006
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.7126
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2874)
3. Double, take +0.6752 ( -0.0374)
Proper cube action: No double, take (11.5%)

Messages In This Thread

• Money game cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 7:43 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 8:16 p.m.
    • Money game cube action
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 8:32 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    Stick -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:02 p.m.
    • Money game cube action
      Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:23 p.m.
    • Money game cube action
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 10:00 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 4:55 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:09 a.m.
    • XG Rollout
      Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
    • Rollout -- another
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 22 January 2010, at 1:56 a.m.
  • Here's what's wrong with the RO's posted so far.
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 4:16 p.m.
    • Layered rollouts
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 5:02 p.m.
      • Holding game 54 payoffs
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
        • Holding game 54 payoffs
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
    • Here's what's wrong with the RO's posted so far.
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 10:26 p.m.
  • XG RO with 4 ply cube
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 4:18 p.m.
    • Very instructive, Neil and Nack! Thanks! *NM*
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 10:21 p.m.