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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout: More subtle than many people think
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: A fairly common type of decision that I rarely see discussed (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 6 July 2012, at 9:48 p.m.
This post received a lot of views but few comments.
As I said, I don't have a full rollout of the original position, and it doesn't seem necessary, since the truncated rollout isn't close.
However, before you assume that the large equity difference allows one to generalize quickly, take a look at the variant below, which I've done a full rollout for.
If Blue gets a second checker sent back, then his prospects deteriorate drastically. Hitting on the 1pt can be a difficult tradeoff to evaluate.
I'd be interested in seeing more examples of this kind of decision. Thanks to David Levy for providing another one already!
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 107Money session pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-aICB----a-a-----abbb-abbA:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 31
1. Rollout1 Bar/22* 2/1* eq: +0.556
Player:
Opponent:56.86% (G:35.10% B:0.96%)
43.14% (G:9.90% B:0.29%)Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.544...+0.568)
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds2. Rollout1 Bar/22* 22/21 eq: +0.379 (-0.177)
Player:
Opponent:52.68% (G:25.65% B:1.09%)
47.32% (G:6.37% B:0.19%)Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.365...+0.393)
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second3. Rollout1 Bar/22* 3/2 eq: +0.200 (-0.356)
Player:
Opponent:47.46% (G:20.46% B:0.82%)
52.54% (G:10.32% B:0.40%)Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.177...+0.223)
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 plyeXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 109Money session pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-aICB----a-a---a--bbb-abbA:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 31
1. Rollout1 Bar/22* 22/21 eq: +0.354
Player:
Opponent:51.97% (G:27.13% B:1.16%)
48.03% (G:6.51% B:0.21%)Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.345...+0.363)
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes2. Rollout1 Bar/22* 2/1* eq: +0.343 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:52.77% (G:29.78% B:0.53%)
47.23% (G:11.73% B:0.45%)Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.332...+0.354)
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 plyeXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
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