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Rollout: More subtle than many people think

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 7 July 2012, at 6:20 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: More subtle than many people think (Timothy Chow)

Comparing the two positions after the double hit, there is a big swing on White's 12 responding numbers that enter one checker without hitting (62 63 64 52 53 54) -- Double/Pass in the original position with Blue's direct shot at a blot on Opponent's 8 point, Double/Take in the alternate position.

Blue on roll after 62 63 or 64

White126

2X2X1O '2X2X2X ' '1X ' '

1O8O3O2O '1X ' '1X '1X '
Blue56
Position ID: G9sIiUD9uwEACA Match ID: UgkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.493868
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.680935
2.Double, pass +1.000000 +0.319065
3.No double +0.571038 -0.109897
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Blue owns 4-cube0.6103680.3304220.003137-0.3896320.0579160.002511 +0.493868 +0.571038
Standard error0.0022440.0028980.000509-0.0022440.0025590.000505 0.006306 0.010416
Player White owns 8-cube0.6126300.3249770.003126-0.3873700.0601810.001910 +0.982542 +0.680935
Standard error0.0021230.0028230.000456-0.0021230.0023270.000364 0.011994 0.018581
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
441 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 920356811 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 1-ply cubeful prune

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