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How to estimate chances of hitting shot?

Posted By: AP
Date: Monday, 26 November 2012, at 3:43 p.m.

So I am blue in the following position, facing a recube from White for money play. I tried to keep my analysis as simple as possible, so I assumed that my race equity was 0 (figured I could always tack on an extra few % at the end), and that my win chances were 100% if I could hit a shot.

Can anyone help me understand how Blue can estimate the chances he has to hit a shot here? I feel like I can calculate % for hitting a shot on the next roll only, but then it all gets blurry when I try to figure out total % I hit a shot for the entire game. Also curious if there is a way to pull this info out of XG...can it breakdown your win% into race% and shot% somehow? Thanks.

Money Game
White on roll. Cube action?
White73

Blue101
GNUBg Id: 7s6DAQC27YLAAA:AQEAAAAAAAAA
XGID=--BBBBCA----A-b---Bd-ccc--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

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