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OLM 20130625
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 25 June 2013, at 8:23 p.m.
In Response To: OLM 20130625 (Chuck Bower)
9/3 8/6 is my before and after reading play.
Chuck, you compare 33% return hits after hitting to 64% straight race wins after not hitting. Then you reduce the 33% because of Opp's home board blot and need to escape. Which is the same as getting in excess of 67% wins for us after hitting. I agree. But whatever the number of wins is in the calculation so far needs further massaging, because with 34 and 44 we only cover by breaking the six point, we're not 100% to closing out the ace point, and we're not 100% to win after a close out.
On the other hand, could you explain how you calculate that we only win 64% via a straight race after 9/1 (or 9/3 8/6)? After those plays, Opp would be on roll and down 11 pips with 90 to our 79, would still be behind our fiveprime, and we would have 10/36 pointing numbers. So 64% seems very low. You seem to be saying that you think the hit wins a lot more games. I'd have guessed that 9/3 8/6 is the DMP play.
Not knowing your calculation, 9079 is 7 pips away from being down 4, which in a straight race is often an even game, and then 7 pips * 2%, perhaps + 50% = 64% GWC for us. But our prime and our pointing numbers, and Opp's 2point stack, must count for something..
About gammons, I agree that gammon losses are few after we make a safe play. But if we hit and are hit, we're likely to get only one crack at entering with a hit from the bar, since White will cover with 29 numbers (6's 3s plus 44  and sometimes 55). If he covers, we'd have one on the bar and four checkers outside. Shouldn't that make for a lot more gammon losses, relative to playing 9/3 8/6 or 9/1?

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