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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 2013-06-25
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: OLM 2013-06-25 (Chuck Bower)
Date: Tuesday, 25 June 2013, at 8:23 p.m.
9/3 8/6 is my before and after reading play.
Chuck, you compare 33% return hits after hitting to 64% straight race wins after not hitting. Then you reduce the 33% because of Opp's home board blot and need to escape. Which is the same as getting in excess of 67% wins for us after hitting. I agree. But whatever the number of wins is in the calculation so far needs further massaging, because with 3-4 and 4-4 we only cover by breaking the six point, we're not 100% to closing out the ace point, and we're not 100% to win after a close out.
On the other hand, could you explain how you calculate that we only win 64% via a straight race after 9/1 (or 9/3 8/6)? After those plays, Opp would be on roll and down 11 pips with 90 to our 79, would still be behind our five-prime, and we would have 10/36 pointing numbers. So 64% seems very low. You seem to be saying that you think the hit wins a lot more games. I'd have guessed that 9/3 8/6 is the DMP play.
Not knowing your calculation, 90-79 is 7 pips away from being down 4, which in a straight race is often an even game, and then 7 pips * 2%, perhaps + 50% = 64% GWC for us. But our prime and our pointing numbers, and Opp's 2-point stack, must count for something..
About gammons, I agree that gammon losses are few after we make a safe play. But if we hit and are hit, we're likely to get only one crack at entering with a hit from the bar, since White will cover with 29 numbers (6's 3s plus 4-4 -- and sometimes 5-5). If he covers, we'd have one on the bar and four checkers outside. Shouldn't that make for a lot more gammon losses, relative to playing 9/3 8/6 or 9/1?
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