Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Bill v JOH 2 (Bill Calton)
Date: Thursday, 25 July 2013, at 2:09 a.m.
In Response To: Bill v JOH 2 (Bill Calton)
White is JOH
11 point match pip: 133
Blue is Bill
XGID=---AbBEbC-B-a---bc-c-bA-A-:1:-1:1:63:0:4:0:11:10 Blue to play 63
1. XG Roller++ 24/18 6/3 eq: -0.096
47.84% (G:13.70% B:0.45%)
52.16% (G:12.75% B:0.44%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/15 eq: -0.180 (-0.084)
45.40% (G:12.18% B:0.42%)
54.60% (G:14.86% B:0.60%)
3. XG Roller++ 8/2 6/3 eq: -0.201 (-0.105)
43.61% (G:13.53% B:0.36%)
56.39% (G:13.78% B:0.55%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
Coming partway out and making the board is the best play. 24/18, 6/3.
I played 24/15. I guess my superficial thinking was something like this:
1) Up in the race, race
2) Running all the way gets hit less often so let's try to get one home
Possible reasons why the other play is better:
1) Making a three point board will prove useful for the rest of the game. Any subsequent hit by me becomes that more potent.
2) Stopping on the bar is a sort of distraction play. Yes I am likely to get hit but at least John won't be making a home board point.
3) If he hits loose I may get returns from the bar. I need the 3 point board for these potential hitbacks to have some impact.
4) I still have a good offensive structure on my side of the board. It will be difficult for John to attack and escape at the same time. And once again, in an exchange of hits having that blot covered rather than exposed is a real improvement.
5) Note even the silly looking play 8/2, 6/3. not running at all is almost as good as my play. I assume this is emphasizing the importance of covering the blot and assembling a 3 point board.
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