We need to start unloading the midpoint and also we would like to start moving our back checkers. Even though 24/22 is a better split than 24/23, if we play 24/22, then we don't have an ace that is as effective as unstacking the midpoint. Robertie gets this one right for all the right reasons.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BD-B---cEb--b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.258 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.63% (G:11.23% B:0.47%)
55.37% (G:18.19% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.265...-0.250) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.280 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.80% (G:10.76% B:0.45%)
56.20% (G:17.31% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.288...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.282 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.80% (G:11.23% B:0.45%)
56.20% (G:17.88% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.289...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.312 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.10% (G:10.85% B:0.48%)
56.90% (G:18.66% B:1.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.321...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 24/23 6/4 | eq: -0.317 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.66% (G:11.36% B:0.48%)
56.34% (G:19.69% B:1.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.325...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 13/10 | eq: -0.324 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.94% (G:10.84% B:0.45%)
57.06% (G:18.48% B:0.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.332...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84373515
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now, to the variants. First off, my usual spares thing. Moving a spare from the midpoint to the 8pt provides better distribution and hence we should choose the stronger split.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 158
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BD-C---cDb--b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.185 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.90% (G:11.89% B:0.50%)
54.10% (G:16.80% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.190...-0.180) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.204 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.57% (G:11.48% B:0.47%)
54.43% (G:16.62% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.209...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.214 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.74% (G:11.80% B:0.50%)
54.26% (G:18.13% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.222...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 24/23 6/4 | eq: -0.222 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.48% (G:12.54% B:0.56%)
54.52% (G:18.13% B:0.95%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.232...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout4 | 13/10 | eq: -0.274 (-0.089) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.58% (G:11.26% B:0.50%)
56.42% (G:17.45% B:0.91%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.291...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout4 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.288 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.42% (G:11.10% B:0.48%)
56.58% (G:17.57% B:0.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.305...-0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84373515
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
4 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84373515
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Moving that same spare all the way to the 6pt makes 6/5 almost mandatory.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BE-B---cDb--b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.220 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.94% (G:12.03% B:0.49%)
55.06% (G:17.17% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.228...-0.212) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.258 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.03% (G:11.40% B:0.46%)
55.97% (G:17.37% B:0.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.266...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 01 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/23 6/4 | eq: -0.277 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.07% (G:12.16% B:0.48%)
55.93% (G:18.49% B:0.95%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.287...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.284 (-0.063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.77% (G:11.68% B:0.49%)
56.23% (G:18.54% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.296...-0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout3 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.344 (-0.124) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.35% (G:11.05% B:0.44%)
57.65% (G:18.53% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.363...-0.325) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout3 | 13/10 | eq: -0.380 (-0.159) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.35% (G:11.13% B:0.46%)
58.65% (G:18.40% B:0.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.396...-0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16480435
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Moving a spare from 6pt back to the 8pt makes unloading the midpoint clear winner.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 165
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BC-C---cEb--b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.212 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.87% (G:11.34% B:0.48%)
54.13% (G:18.07% B:0.84%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.220...-0.204) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.243 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.69% (G:10.90% B:0.47%)
55.31% (G:17.57% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.252...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/10 | eq: -0.268 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.11% (G:11.07% B:0.47%)
55.89% (G:17.72% B:1.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.286...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.298 (-0.086) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.38% (G:10.60% B:0.43%)
56.62% (G:17.86% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.313...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 24/23 8/6 | eq: -0.307 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.02% (G:11.05% B:0.47%)
56.98% (G:17.33% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.323...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Next, some of the variants that were suggested by David. We begin by moving white 11pt around a bit.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BD-B---cE-b-b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.246 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.65% (G:10.83% B:0.45%)
55.35% (G:17.26% B:0.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.251...-0.240) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.262 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.55% (G:11.05% B:0.48%)
55.45% (G:18.44% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.268...-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.281 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.79% (G:10.70% B:0.42%)
56.21% (G:17.25% B:0.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.291...-0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.326 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.04% (G:10.92% B:0.47%)
56.96% (G:18.70% B:1.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.340...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Since I'm a one trick pony, I don't really have a good explanation for this rollout result. I'd be happy if anybody can explain what is going on.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BD-B---cE--bb-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.299 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.86% (G:10.64% B:0.45%)
56.14% (G:18.76% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.311...-0.288) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.342 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.58% (G:10.55% B:0.48%)
57.42% (G:19.13% B:1.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.353...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.345 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.73% (G:10.65% B:0.43%)
57.27% (G:19.83% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.355...-0.335) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.363 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.37% (G:10.29% B:0.42%)
57.63% (G:20.05% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.375...-0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
This I guess is because we don't want to come under attack on our 22pt.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---b-BD-B---cE---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.450 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.19% (G:9.46% B:0.38%)
59.81% (G:21.57% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.454...-0.446) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.465 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.63% (G:9.14% B:0.37%)
60.37% (G:21.58% B:0.72%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.469...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.466 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.67% (G:9.62% B:0.39%)
60.33% (G:21.56% B:0.94%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.470...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.485 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.90% (G:9.35% B:0.37%)
61.10% (G:20.39% B:1.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.500...-0.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| |
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23437138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now white is priming, so the best possible split is a must.
Finally, let's see how moving white anchor in our home board changes our game plan.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bBD-B---cEb--b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.386 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.65% (G:8.94% B:0.37%)
58.35% (G:19.04% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.388...-0.383) - [93.5%]
Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.388 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.55% (G:9.29% B:0.39%)
58.45% (G:18.33% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.391...-0.386) - [6.5%]
Duration: 4 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.405 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.24% (G:8.82% B:0.37%)
58.76% (G:18.52% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.413...-0.398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31807109
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31807109
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now we cannot prime white anchor, so that only leaves running or attacking. The two plays are really close.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--b--BD-B---cEb--b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: -0.076 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.50% (G:14.56% B:0.68%)
51.50% (G:17.76% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.084...-0.068) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.098 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.96% (G:14.48% B:0.71%)
52.04% (G:17.45% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.106...-0.090) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.104 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.70% (G:14.78% B:0.72%)
52.30% (G:17.49% B:1.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.112...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.126 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.63% (G:13.93% B:0.63%)
52.37% (G:18.64% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.141...-0.111) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 13/10 | eq: -0.145 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.82% (G:14.40% B:0.70%)
53.18% (G:17.78% B:1.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.162...-0.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31807109
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31807109
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With more room to work with, we are looking to prime white anchor.