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Hiding behind Jacoby

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 24 September 2013, at 11:08 p.m.

In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #102 -- Rollout + Variants (Igor)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
Unlimited Game
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--EBC--Ab----cccb---B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/22 8/7eq: -0.4770
Player:
Opponent:		38.33% (G:12.34% B:0.79%)
61.67% (G:19.77% B:1.03%)		Conf.: ±0.0021 (-0.4791...-0.4749) - [54.7%]
Duration: 4 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout124/21eq: -0.4772 (-0.0002)
Player:
Opponent:		38.00% (G:12.06% B:0.92%)
62.00% (G:20.03% B:1.02%)		Conf.: ±0.0020 (-0.4792...-0.4751) - [45.3%]
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 6/5eq: -0.4847 (-0.0077)
Player:
Opponent:		38.57% (G:12.51% B:0.90%)
61.43% (G:23.77% B:2.09%)		Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.4870...-0.4824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
4.Rollout224/22 11/10eq: -0.5043 (-0.0273)
Player:
Opponent:		37.53% (G:11.85% B:0.83%)
62.47% (G:19.89% B:1.07%)		Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.5088...-0.4998) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
5.Rollout324/23 24/22eq: -0.5241 (-0.0471)
Player:
Opponent:		37.49% (G:11.38% B:0.74%)
62.51% (G:21.50% B:1.03%)		Conf.: ±0.0068 (-0.5309...-0.5173) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17506262
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17506262
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17506262
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Hiding behind Jacoby

This is one of the variants Igor rolled. With Jacoby as protection, his rollout shows W = Wild [24/22, 6/5] to be best.

Here, the gammon risk is too high, so b = both [24/22, 8/7] comes out on top. Either way, White does not yet have a cube.

Because White’s points in the outer board are no longer stripped, V = Variant up [24/23, 24/22], which ranks a close second in the original position, has fallen out of contention in this variant.

This is yet another counterexample that puts the lie to the notion that Jacoby does not make much of a difference. The supposed benefit of Jacoby is to do away with long, boring games. Here you see the cost is a distortion of strategy and tactics.

Mike

 

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