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4 point holding game - cube action?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 3:15 a.m.

In Response To: 4 point holding game - cube action? (Rod)

I would take deeper than 22.4% at this score. In an efficient race, one can take to 19.5%. I would expect the recube here to be less efficient, so the take point is probably between 20% and 21%.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 90
5 point match
pip: 79
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----CEG-a----------fec----:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.667% (G:0.001% B:0.000%) 79.631% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.333% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 20.369% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5934 +1.0988
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8471 (-0.1066)±0.0016 (+0.8455..+0.8487)
Double/Take:+0.9537±0.0021 (+0.9517..+0.9558)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0463)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88317831
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 91
5 point match
pip: 79
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----CEGa-----------fec----:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.086% (G:0.001% B:0.000%) 81.045% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.914% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 18.955% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6217 +1.1591
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8804 (-0.1196)±0.0015 (+0.8789..+0.8820)
Double/Take:+1.0260 (+0.0260)±0.0021 (+1.0239..+1.0281)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88317831
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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