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4 point holding game - cube action? - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 5 October 2013, at 5:39 p.m.

In Response To: 4 point holding game - cube action? (Daniel Murphy)

A small pass for money, a small but clear take leading 4-away 5-away.

To me it just looks like a pass for money. Match leader has an elevated take point for nongammonish cubes at many match-leading scores.

Fudging, 94-108 is about 3 pips shy of a take without contact, less ~1% for 66...6X, less maybe 4% for one fly shot, less something for a winning shot while clearing the 8/7/6/5 points, but plus something since Blue's board crashes (1/3 of the time next turn).

Money game.

White on roll, cube decision?

White	94
Blue	109
Position ID: brcBAAc2t01AAA Match ID: MAEAACAAGAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5752
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0220	+0.0220
3.	No double	+0.8820	-0.1180
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7716 0.0430 0.0006 - 0.2284 0.0113 0.0002 +0.5752 +0.8820 Standard error 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 0.0012 0.0035 Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7780 0.0413 0.0006 - 0.2220 0.0109 0.0002 +1.1738 +1.0220 Standard error 0.0008 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0004 0.0006 0.0034 0.0049
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 728593439 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score is: White 2 (5-away), Blue 3 (4-away) (match to 7 points)

White on roll, cube decision?

White	94
Blue	109
Position ID: brcBAAc2t01AAA Match ID: MAHgACAAGAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5788	(Money: +0.5748)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9495
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0505
3.	No double	+0.8568	-0.0927
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7716 0.0430 0.0006 - 0.2284 0.0117 0.0004 +0.5788 +0.8568 Standard error 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0009 0.0003 0.0014 0.0035 Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7776 0.0421 0.0007 - 0.2224 0.0133 0.0006 +1.1195 +0.9495 Standard error 0.0008 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0013 0.0003 0.0039 0.0053
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 728593439 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 4 point holding game - cube action?
  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 2 October 2013, at 5:16 p.m.
  • 4 point holding game - cube action?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 2 October 2013, at 6:23 p.m.
  • 4 point holding game - cube action?
    Rod -- Wednesday, 2 October 2013, at 6:34 p.m.
    • 4 point holding game - cube action?
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 2:46 a.m.
    • 4 point holding game - cube action?
      David Rockwell -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 3:15 a.m.
  • 4 point holding game - cube action?
    HOMINID -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 2:09 p.m.
    • 4 point holding game - cube action?
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 3 October 2013, at 2:36 p.m.
  • 4 point holding game - cube action? - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 5 October 2013, at 5:39 p.m.