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BGonline.org Forums
Proper Cube Action
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: Proper Cube Action (__1ERROR1__)
Date: Sunday, 27 October 2013, at 10:04 p.m.
Another day another BG cube problem. Plenty of interest in the original post, one response. There is a message here, many are lost when it comes to cube theory. Neil posted his opinion which of course is of great interest and with his vast experience and abilities undoubtably correct. This of course does not help the BG plebs of which I am one.
There is a ray of sunshine in this problem. Obviously one has to calculate the game winning chances. Very often this is a simple calculation dependent on the odds of the dice rolls. This is one of those problems which lends itself to that approach.
At a glance if white were to double many might expect black to take using MWC theory on account of the match score. The question one has to ask themselves here is what are the odds of leaving a hit for black. Count the rolls, there are no rolls that leave a direct hit for black and only five chances which leave an indirect hit for eight chances for black to hit. The arithmetic is simple enough: 5/36 x 8/36 x 100 = 3% .That's the chance that white will be hit in the next two rolls. Black will be forced to run or break his board .
Whites chances of making a Gammon are remote and is very unlikely to get any problems bearing in and off with the great pip count, so it's a huge double and a big drop if black has counted the rolls.
When you see this type of problem get your pencil and paper out do the sums . In time use a shortcut 5 x 8 x .08 Counting the rolls, not a problem: 66,65,64,63 etc 55,54,53 etc 44,43,42 and so on. That ray of sun is hot so is this solution. Well as a pleb I think so lol.
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