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Fourth-Roll Quiz: Blue to play 32

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Friday, 1 November 2013, at 2:13 p.m.

In Response To: Fourth-Roll Quiz: Blue to play 32 (Paul Weaver)

OK Paul I'll bite.

Very low confidence on these. I won't be surprised if I have every single one wrong.

I actually see six reasonable plays, only compounding my chances of getting these wrong.

U: Two Up, 24/21, 24/22

K: Kill, 6/3*/1*

X: Hit & Split, 24/22, 6/3*

S: Split 24/21, 13/11

Z: Reverse Split 24/22, 13/10

T: Tower 13/8

**************

1st pos. Two Up, 24/21, 24/22.

With the five point made we are in the most danger of getting primed so let's break for the anchor now. He's only got eight in the zone so danger is least now. Killing is always an option but ... we are outboarded and getting hit blows. Even if we are missed we still have a lot of work to do and did I mention he has the five point? Any counter hit stops the attack dead in our tracks.

2nd pos. Kill, 6/3*/1*.

He's only got a one point so if we are going to attack his seems like the most favorable scenario for attacking. Only one point board so the least downside. OTOH our structure is also the worst here so seems best geared towards an attacking solution.

3rd pos. Hit & Split, 24/22, 6/3*

We feel some priming heat with the 4 point so there is at least some motivation to split. Hitting "protects" the split while duplicating some threes and giving some bad sixes from the bar. We are outboarded and not too desperate and the roll plays OK so guessing we really don't want to attack here.

4th pos. Tower, 13/8.

Reinforces the 8 point and unstacks the midpoint. Is "always constructive" meaning this play always works or doesn't depend on opponent not hitting us. The downside is it leaves opponent unmolested to do something good next turn. But this game with both of us having 5-points seems about even. No need to jump off the bridge just yet. So the small ball approach makes sense to me.

5th pos. Split, 24/21, 13/11

Once again opponent has the five point, which always makes me nervous. Let's split now and unstack. Seems constructive enough. There is some minor duplication of 2's and 4's which is why I like this better than reverse split but I doubt this factor is a big deal.

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