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Rollout Results and Comments

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Saturday, 2 November 2013, at 1:25 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout Results and Comments (Paul Weaver)

Thank you for the interesting rollouts and comments.

I have a question regarding the first 4th roll position (31P-31P-52S-32): I have a 3rd roll rollout for 31P-11S-32 (via XG1; credit to David R) which differs from your rollout by moving back a white checker from the 19 to the 12.





White is Black

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is White
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---eE---c-cb---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0.074
Player:
Opponent:		48.42% (G:11.96% B:0.67%)
51.58% (G:14.27% B:0.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.085...-0.062) - [86.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.083 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		47.94% (G:12.66% B:0.65%)
52.06% (G:14.42% B:0.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.094...-0.072) - [13.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 6/3* eq: -0.101 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		47.38% (G:14.29% B:0.79%)
52.62% (G:15.39% B:1.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.114...-0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 55 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.111 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		47.19% (G:12.61% B:0.64%)
52.81% (G:14.08% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.122...-0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
5.Rollout16/3* 3/1* eq: -0.113 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		46.90% (G:14.60% B:0.57%)
53.10% (G:15.20% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.124...-0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24988308
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

As you can see, this changes everything in a way that the hitting play is incorrect. Moreover, the best play in the position you presented isn't even in the top 5 plays in the position above. In fact, it is only 3rd out of the hitting alternatives (its equity is -0.114). Based on the position above, which I considered as a better benchmark then the 52s-32, I can't understand what makes the hitting correct when you give your opponent the extra checker.

I will appreciate your input on this.

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