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over rated

Posted By: Rod
Date: Tuesday, 17 December 2013, at 6:41 p.m.

In Response To: over rated (Stick)

Ok. My point exactly.

Maybe Mochy plays a 2.7 average. Maybe not. But my quick calc here gives over 2.7. It gives 2.9. Amazing. Great. Fantastic. Really.

But not a 2.7.

People don't understand how simple averages work, not deep down. A single high PR match increases an average built on many low PR matches so much that being anywhere close to that low number is so tough.

And, since Mochy records his matches, I have to think he has 5 times as many matches over 2 years. The ones he has posted may be representative of his average PR. Or they might not be.

My only point is that for someone to say, X plays exactly a Y PR is silly. You just can't know. I peg people to 0.5 PR ranges when I try to use the info in play. 1 full PR ranges above 5 or 6.

Howard Markowitz has had one match posted. He played a 13. Howard is not a 13 PR player.

Mochy is a great player. He was my number 1 giant pick and I think he belongs there. But, like with Petko, people simply don't understand how averages work.

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